El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-29
$15.30-0.46%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put LOCO beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Restaurants is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 4% over the past year.
View GrowthManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, the balance sheet, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskEl Pollo Loco’s expansion and comparable restaurant sales growth must sustain its strong performance. Its latest reported quarter beat earnings expectations, supporting that case. LOCO trades at 14× P/E versus a 16× peer median. Expectations look modest compared with our view. Management is running behind on a stated commitment. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 28%. Peer multiples imply a price about 13% above where it trades; the thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. LOCO is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 7 analysts currently covering LOCO (as of Oct 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
Continue this research
Compare LOCO with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOCO Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Restaurants — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put LOCO next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: System-wide comparable restaurant sales growth
New stores support comparable restaurant sales growth objective.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: System-wide comparable restaurant sales growth
New location supports system-wide comparable sales growth objective.
Advances: System-wide comparable restaurant sales growth
Expansion plans support comparable restaurant sales growth.
Advances: System-wide comparable restaurant sales growth
Strong sales support comparable restaurant sales growth objective.
Advances: System-wide comparable restaurant sales growth
Menu innovation and expansion support comparable sales growth.
Advances: System-wide comparable restaurant sales growth
Comp growth and EBITDA guidance exceed expectations.
Advances: System-wide comparable restaurant sales growth
New restaurants support comparable sales growth objective.
Advances: System-wide comparable restaurant sales growth
New location supports comparable restaurant sales growth.