Reading LOCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LOCO free→Reading LOCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LOCO free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. The company has a capital-friendly stance, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 31% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how major players like MCD and SBUX perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.57. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $16 LOCO trades at 14× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $23 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 31% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.93x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.28 → $0.28 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$97.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$303.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,101.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can indicate consumer appetite for dining out. A strong report may boost El Pollo Loco's outlook.
Confirms:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth above 1% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales decline or show no growth month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LOCO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The Board of Directors of El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) previously approved amending the El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. Equity Incentive Plan (the “Equity Incentive Plan”), subject to stockholder approval. As disclosed in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Restaurants.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LOCO El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
MCD McDonald's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | moderate |
SBUX Starbucks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
YUM Yum! Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving system-wide comparable restaurant sales growth of 2.0% to 4.0% for fiscal year 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company has set a target for system-wide comparable restaurant sales growth of 2.0% to 4.0% for fiscal year 2026. Financials show revenue increased from $119.2M in 2025-Q1 to $126.2M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards growth targets.
“System-wide comparable restaurant sales growth of 2.0% to 4.0%.”
The company aims for adjusted EBITDA between $67.5 million and $69.5 million for fiscal year 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company has set an adjusted EBITDA target of $67.5M to $69.5M for fiscal year 2026. Operating income increased from $8.97M in 2025-Q1 to $12.22M in 2026-Q1, suggesting positive momentum towards achieving this target.
“Adjusted EBITDA between $67.5 million and $69.5 million.”
Plan to allocate capital spending between $37.0 million and $40.0 million for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company plans capital spending of $37M to $40M for 2026. Cash from operations was $13.01M in 2026-Q1, down from $13.91M in 2025-Q4, indicating a need for careful capital allocation to meet spending targets.
“Capital spending between $37.0 million and $40.0 million.”
The company has announced a share repurchase program authorizing up to $40 million in buybacks.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company announced a $40M share repurchase program. No buybacks were recorded in 2026-Q1, indicating the program is in its initial phase. This initiative reflects a strategic capital allocation decision.
“The Board approved a share repurchase program under which the Company is authorized to repurchase up to $40,000,000 in shares.”
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would signal a shift in the declining trend for the sector. It could show that El Pollo Loco is gaining traction in a tough market.
Confirms:El Pollo Loco reports revenue growth of more than 0% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue continues to decline year over year.
Other Events. On May 28, 2026, El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that on May 28, 2026 its Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program (the “Repurchase Program”) under which the Company is authorized to repurchase up to $40,000,000 in shares of the Company’s Common Stock. Under the Repurchase Program, shares may be repurchased from time to time on the open market, in block trades, in privately negotiated transactions, or transactions otherwise in compliance with…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing certain financial results for its first quarter ended April 1, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 12, 2026, El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing certain financial results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Departure of Directors On January 27, 2026, Mark Buller provided his resignation from the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), effective as of February 28, 2026. Mr. Buller’s decision to resign was not due to any disagreement with the Company. Appointment of Directors On January 27, 2026, the Board, upon…
“Capital spending between $37.0 million and $40.0 million.”