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Leslie's Inc (LESL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this week
$7.19-9.79%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, LESL trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 80% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because recent financials are weak and earnings quality is fragile. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- Market cap
- $74.59M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2020-10-07
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.19. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$35.67consensus
Range $20.17 – $51.18
vs price: -80% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-year—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $7.19 LESL trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $36 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
0.1x
peer 0.9x · own history —
Premium
0.1x peer
Growth the price needs
-80%
our forecast -12%
Our fair value
$35.53
range $20.03 – $51.02
WhyValuation methods disagreeEarnings too small for P/EPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 80% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
21st pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.10x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutral8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral3 analysts, 33% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $5.03 → $5.06 (+0.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme value-trade-down.headwind
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$561.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,207.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $9,284.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for changes in retail sales data on June 17
Why it matters: Retail sales data can show how consumers are spending. This affects Leslie's business.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Retail sales data shows an increase month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales data shows a decrease month over month.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LESL yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like WSM, ULTA, and DKS keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting LESL and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If LESL raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-02-17), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If LESL cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-02-17), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like WSM, ULTA, and DKS start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping LESL and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits LESL and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-131mo agoItem 2.02
of this report, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The information and the accompanying exhibit shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission made by the Company, except as shall be expressly s…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+7.8 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.