Reading WINA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WINA free→Reading WINA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WINA free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash flow. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind, suggesting challenges ahead. Peer multiples imply a price about 133% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include the performance of sector bellwethers and any potential shifts in GDP growth. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $402.61. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $403 the market pays 36× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 34× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $171 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 135% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.02x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.14 → $3.14 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$162.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$419.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,026.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows how Winmark manages cash and rewards shareholders. A successful payment supports confidence in cash flow.
Confirms:The dividend of $1.02 per share is paid without any issues.
Disproves:The dividend payment is delayed or canceled.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WINA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On May 5, 2026, Lawrence A. Barbetta, a member of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Winmark Corporation (the “Company”) notified the Company that he will not stand for re-election at the Company’s Annual Meeting of Shareholders to be held on or about April 21, 2027, in accordance with the Company’s independent director term limits. Mr.…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Other Specialty Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WINA Winmark | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ULTA Ulta Beauty | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSCO Tractor Supply | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CHWY Chewy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | elevated |
BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Winmark aims to increase its quarterly dividend to $1.02 per share, reflecting a commitment to return value to shareholders.
Winmark is focused on maintaining strong cash flow from operations to support its business model and investments.
Winmark is launching a North American Ad Fund for Plato's Closet to enhance marketing efforts.
Why it matters: This report will show if revenue and profits are improving or declining. Investors will focus on trends in franchise performance.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows net income growth year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows net income decline year over year.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps fund growth and pay dividends. Better cash flow shows improved efficiency.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations is up from last quarter.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations decreases or remains stagnant.
Why it matters: Maintaining strong cash flow is crucial for Winmark's financial health. A drop would signal ongoing challenges.
Confirms:Cash from operations in Q2 2026 is at least $12 million, showing recovery.
Disproves:Cash from operations drops below $10 million. This suggests more decline ahead.
Why it matters: This fund aims to boost marketing for Plato's Closet. Success could drive franchise growth and revenue.
Confirms:The Ad Fund is launching. Franchisees will take part.
Disproves:No announcement or delays in launching the Ad Fund.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports dividend payments and growth plans. It shows financial health.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations reported above $X in the next earnings.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations reported below $X in the next earnings.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 15, 2026, Winmark Corporation (the “Company”) announced in a press release its results of operations and financial condition for the first quarter ended March 28, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 of this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Other Events On April 15, 2026, the Company announced in a press release that its Board of Directors has approved the payment of a cash dividend to its shareholders. The quarterly dividend of $1.02 per share will be paid on June 1, 2026 to shareholders of record on the close of business on May 13, 2026. Future dividends will be subject to Board approval. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.2 of this Current Report of Form 8-K.
Regulation FD Disclosure On April 15, 2026, the Company announced in a press release its results of operations and financial condition for the first quarter ended March 28, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 of this Current Report on Form 8-K. On April 15, 2026, the Company announced in a press release that its Board of Directors has approved the payment of a cash dividend to its shareholders. The quarterly dividend of $1.02 per share will be paid on June 1, 202…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 18, 2026, Winmark Corporation (the “Company”) announced in a press release its results of operations and financial condition for the year ended December 27, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 of this Current Report on Form 8-K.