Reading ARKO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. However, management's recent track record has been volatile, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact ARKO's performance compared to sector peers, where it trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 77% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.20. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $8.20 ARKO trades at 34× p/e — 2.2× the 15× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $5.16 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 59% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 5.83x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.15 → $0.15 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$204.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$434.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,640.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report will indicate consumer behavior trends. Strong retail sales could signal increased demand for Arko's products.
Confirms:Retail Sales report shows an increase in consumer spending above 0.5% month over month.
Disproves:Retail Sales report shows a decline in consumer spending month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ARKO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, ARKO Corp., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference into this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Other Specialty Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ARKO Arko Corp. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ULTA Ulta Beauty | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSCO Tractor Supply | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CHWY Chewy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | elevated |
BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company maintains its full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance between $245 million and $265 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has maintained its full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance between $245 million and $265 million. Despite a net income decline from $1.86 million in 2025-Q4 to -$6.64 million in 2026-Q1, the guidance remains unchanged, indicating a recurring focus with limited substantive delivery so far.
“The Company is not updating its guidance disclosed in February 2026...”
“The Company currently expects full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA to range between $245 million and $265 million.”
The company emphasizes generating cash from operations as a key financial metric.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operating activities decreased from $49.42 million in 2025-Q3 to $18.67 million in 2026-Q1. This decline indicates limited progress in maintaining operational cash flow as a priority.
Management aims to stabilize net income, which has shown significant fluctuations.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net income has fluctuated significantly, from $13.46 million in 2025-Q3 to -$6.64 million in 2026-Q1. This volatility suggests limited progress in stabilizing net income, a recurring focus for management.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, ARKO Corp., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference into this
Employee and Intercompany Matters Agreement On February 13, 2026, the Company entered into an employee and intercompany matters agreement with Arko Convenience Stores, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (“ ACS ”), GPM, APC and the other parties signatory thereto (the “Employee and Intercompany Matters Agreement”), which governs the allocation of employee benefit and compensation plans, and certain shared obligations between APC and its affil…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information contained in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 3, 2026, ARKO Petroleum Corp. (“APC”), a subsidiary of ARKO Corp., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission an amendment to its registration statement on Form S-1 (the “APC Registration Statement”). The APC Registration Statement included APC’s preliminary estimated net income for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. Based upon preliminary estimated financial results, AP…
“Cash from operating activities was $18.67 million.”
“Cash from operating activities was $44.58 million.”
“Cash from operating activities was $49.42 million.”
“Net income was -$6.64 million.”
“Net income was $1.86 million.”
“Net income was $13.46 million.”