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Arko Corp. (ARKO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this week
$8.20-4.98%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. However, management's recent track record has been volatile, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact ARKO's performance compared to sector peers, where it trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 77% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- Market cap
- $968.16M
- Employees
- 9,748
- IPO date
- 2021-01-14
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.20. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$5.06consensus
Range $4.14 – $15.29
vs price: +62% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$2.03consensus
Range $2.03 – $2.03
vs price: +303% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $8.20 ARKO trades at 34× p/e — 2.2× the 15× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $5.16 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
33.7x
peer 15.4x · own history —
Premium
2.2x peer
Growth the price needs
59%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$5.16
range $4.14 – $15.54
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premiumValuation methods disagree
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 59% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
44th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 5.83x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
90th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish1 analysts, 100% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.15 → $0.15 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme value-trade-down.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strongProvisional
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$204.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$434.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,640.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Short-term · Daily
- UpsideMedium confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for changes in consumer spending from the Retail Sales report on June 17, 2026
Why it matters: This report will indicate consumer behavior trends. Strong retail sales could signal increased demand for Arko's products.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Retail Sales report shows an increase in consumer spending above 0.5% month over month.
Disproves:Retail Sales report shows a decline in consumer spending month over month.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ARKO yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like WSM, ULTA, and DKS keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting ARKO and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ARKO raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If ARKO cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like WSM, ULTA, and DKS start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping ARKO and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits ARKO and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, ARKO Corp., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference into this
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.