Reading EVGO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EVGO free→Reading EVGO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EVGO free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If EVGO cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.00. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.00 EVGO trades at 1× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $2.37 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 18% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 83%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.70x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.13 → $-0.18 (-38.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 70% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$305.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$634.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,687.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth could signal a shift in the sector's declining phase. It may improve investor confidence in EVgo's future.
Confirms:Consumer spending growth is now positive after being negative for months.
Disproves:Consumer spending growth is still negative, showing the sector is still declining.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
New leadership role may enhance financial oversight.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 18, 2026, the board of directors of EVgo Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Amber Scott as the Company's Chief Accounting Officer and Principal Accounting Officer, effective May 18, 2026. Ms. Scott will assume the responsibilities of Principal Accounting Officer from Keefer Lehner, the Company’s Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Lehner will continue…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Other Specialty Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EVGO EVgo, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | fair | elevated |
ULTA Ulta Beauty | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSCO Tractor Supply | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CHWY Chewy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | elevated |
BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
EVgo aims to achieve a total revenue of $410-$470 million for the full year 2026.
EVgo aims to achieve an adjusted EBITDA range of $(20) million to $20 million for the full year 2026.
EVgo aims to achieve a total revenue of $75-$85 million for the second quarter of 2026.
Leadership changes and results may improve strategic direction.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of such section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of such section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 8, 2025, the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of EVgo Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “ Company ”), appointed Mr. Keefer Lehner to succeed Mr. Paul Dobson in the role of Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer and Principal Financial Officer (the “ Chief Financial Officer ”), in each case effective as of January 12, 20…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of such section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.