Reading SVV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SVV free→Reading SVV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up profits. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, SVV is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 42% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. Rich on today's multiple, the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.72. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.72 SVV trades at 23× p/e — 1.5× the 15× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $6.84 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 42% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 8.37x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.14 → $0.14 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 10 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 73% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$213.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$461.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,821.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SVV yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 2, 2026, Evergreen AcqCo GP LLC, S-Evergreen Holding Corp., Evergreen AcqCo 1 LP (the “US Borrower”), Value Village Canada Inc. (the “Canadian Borrower” and, together with the US Borrower, the “Borrowers”), each a subsidiary of Savers Value Village, Inc., and certain of their subsidiaries entered into an amendment (the “Amendment”) to the Borrowers’ Credit Agreement, dated as of September 18, 2025 (the “Existing Credit Agreement” and, as ame…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Other Specialty Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SVV Savers Value Village, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 26 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ULTA Ulta Beauty | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSCO Tractor Supply | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CHWY Chewy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | elevated |
BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to achieve net sales between $1.76 billion and $1.79 billion for fiscal 2026.
The company targets adjusted EBITDA between $260 million and $275 million for fiscal 2026.
The company plans capital expenditures between $125 million and $145 million for fiscal 2026.
by reference. SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. SAVERS VALUE VILLAGE, INC. Date: June 2, 2026 By: /s/ Michael W. Maher Name: Michael W. Maher Title: Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Savers Value Village, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing results for the thirteen weeks ended April 4, 2026. A copy of the press release issued on May 6, 2026 is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The information presented herein shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Ex…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 19, 2026, Savers Value Village, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing results for the fourteen and fifty-three weeks ended January 03, 2026. A copy of the press release issued on February 19, 2026 is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The information presented herein shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities and Exchange A…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 12, 2026, Savers Value Village, Inc. issued a press release announcing preliminary fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2025 net sales in conjunction with the Company’s participation in the 28 th Annual ICR Conference in Orlando, Florida January 12-14, 2026. A copy of the press release issued on January 12, 2026 is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. These preliminary resu…