Reading ONEW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ONEW free→Reading ONEW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance below typical for sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 65% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $11.42. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
We can't anchor a clean multiple for ONEW right now, so treat our $6.93 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts: $13–$15. Not investment advice.
$13.00 – $15.00 (median $14.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-01
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 67% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.63x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.54 → $0.75 (+38.6% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$272.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$606.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,218.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ONEW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and will not be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Other Specialty Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ONEW OneWater Marine, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | expensive | high |
ULTA Ulta Beauty | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSCO Tractor Supply | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CHWY Chewy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | fair | elevated |
BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve adjusted EBITDA in the range of $60 million to $80 million for fiscal year 2026.
The company aims to maintain flat dealership same-store sales year over year for fiscal year 2026.
The company has completed the acquisition of Ocean Bio-Chem to enhance its market position.
The unaudited pro forma condensed consolidated financial statements of the Company as of and for the year ended September 30, 2025 are set forth in Exhibit 99.1 hereto and are incorporated herein by reference. Cautionary Statement Concerning Forward-Looking Statements This Current Report on Form 8-K, including the pro forma financial statements attached hereto, may contain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including regard…
by reference. The Purchase Agreement governs the contractual rights between the parties in relation to the sale of Ocean Bio-Chem. The Purchase Agreement has been filed as an exhibit to this Current Report on Form 8-K to provide investors with information regarding the terms of the Purchase Agreement and is not intended to provide, modify or supplement any information about the Company, Ocean Bio-Chem, the Buyer or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, or their respective busine…
by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and will not be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein by reference.
by reference. On November 17, 2025, the Company entered into the Third Amendment to Eighth Amended and Restated Inventory Financing Agreement, Omnibus Amendment to Collateralized Guarantees, and First Amendment to Consent Agreement (the "Third Amendment") to, among other things, (i) modify certain definitions, covenants, terms and conditions, (ii) modify the termination date of the Third Agreement to be March 1, 2027, and (iii) adjust the maximum borrowing capacity to $497.1 million and permi…