Reading BBWI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BBWI free→Reading BBWI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BBWI free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality and management's recent track record are neutral. Peer multiples imply a price about 51% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of key Consumer Discretionary bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $21.07. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $19 BBWI trades at 6× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $43 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $19–$23. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 55% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.59x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.20 → $0.24 (+20.5% / 30d). 13 raised, 0 cut, 16 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 24% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 15.3% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$255.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$497.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,499.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This is a key test of the company's recovery strategy after a weak Q1.
Confirms:Q2 net sales decline between 5% to 3% compared to $1,549 million in Q2 2025.
Disproves:Q2 net sales decline less than 3% or show growth compared to Q2 2025.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BBWI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 26, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of the Company approved the appointment of Tom Javitch to serve as the Company’s Interim Chief Financial Officer and D. Andrew Meeting to serve as the Company’s Senior Vice President, Controller and Principal Accounting Officer, to be effective as of June 12, 2026 (the "Transition Date"), which…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$19.00 – $23.00 (median $22.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-28
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Other Specialty Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ULTA Ulta Beauty | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSCO Tractor Supply | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CHWY Chewy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | elevated |
VGNT Versigent PLC | — | — | low |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -63.2% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to maintain a consistent dividend payout to shareholders.
Focus on increasing cash generated from operating activities.
Aim to generate approximately $600 million in free cash flow for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: The CFO change may impact financial plans and actions during an important time.
Confirms one read:New CFO Tom Javitch puts financial plans into action without problems.
Confirms the other:Problems happen or financial results get worse under the interim CFO.
Why it matters: Reaching this goal is important for financial stability. It helps maintain dividends.
Confirms:The company generates free cash flow of $600 million in fiscal 2026.
Disproves:Free cash flow falls significantly below $600 million in fiscal 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition and
Results of Operations and Financial Condition and
Regulation FD Disclosure. On March 3, 2026, Bath & Body Works, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a notice of redemption for any and all outstanding of its 6.694% Senior Notes due 2027 (the “Notes”). The redemption date for the Notes will be April 10, 2026. The redemption price for the Notes will be calculated in accordance with the indenture governing the Notes and will be equal to the greater of (a) 100% of the principal amount of the Notes to be redeemed and (b) the sum of the present values of t…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Effective on February 24, 2026, Michael Wu ceased to serve as Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary of Bath & Body Works, Inc. (the “Company”). The Company has initiated a search to identify the Company’s next Chief Legal Officer. It is expected that Mr. Wu will serve as a non-executive employee of the Company to assist with the orderly trans…