NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-07-31
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Create your account →Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Operating margin near 12.3% to 12.4%: operating margin 14.2% vs 12.3%.
View ThesisManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, the balance sheet, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 1% on a typical day and fell roughly 36% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskUlta's growth depends on its ability to maintain strong revenue and margins. Revenue grew 11.1% year over year, and the last quarter beat expectations. It trades at 19× P/E, above the peer median of 16×. This suggests the price reflects less growth than expected. A specific risk is the potential for a guidance cut, with a 23% chance of missing next quarter. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-31. ULTA is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 27 analysts currently covering ULTA (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 9 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for ULTA in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-08-01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Other Specialty Retail — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
New partnership could enhance revenue growth opportunities.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-31. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $512.83
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $512.83.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
New product launch aligns with revenue growth objectives.
Threatens: Increase revenue growth by 6% to 7%
Loss of customer perk may reduce revenue growth.
Threatens: Increase revenue growth by 6% to 7%
Loss of customer perk may reduce revenue growth.
Advances: Capex between $400 million and $450 million
Investment in NYC megastore aligns with growth objectives.
Investment in NYC megastore aligns with growth strategy.
Leaving Target may impact revenue growth.
Channel shift risks from competition noted.
