Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-30
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-30
Research Workspace
Put ULTA beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Operating margin near 12.3% to 12.4%: Operating margin: 12.51%.
View ThesisManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 34% growth a year, above the roughly 12% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 1% on a typical day and fell roughly 36% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskULTA’s thesis rests on strong beauty demand and a durable franchise, despite slowing revenue growth. Revenue growth eased from 11.8% to 8.9%; its latest quarter still beat EPS consensus. ULTA trades at 23× P/E versus a 14× peer median and its 19× historical multiple. The market is pricing in more growth than our forecast, leaving expectations full. A 21% next-quarter miss probability and operating margin pressure near 12.3% to 12.4% threaten that premium. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% below where it trades; the thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. ULTA is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 29 analysts currently covering ULTA (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 8 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for ULTA in the last 4 months.
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Compare ULTA with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTA Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Other Specialty Retail — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put ULTA next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
CEO selling shares may raise concerns about leadership confidence.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $640.43
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $640.43.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.

Advances: Increase revenue growth by 6% to 7%
Resilient demand supports revenue growth objectives.

Advances: Increase revenue growth by 6% to 7%
Earnings beat indicates strong revenue growth potential.

Advances: Increase revenue growth by 6% to 7%
CFO's praise indicates strong revenue growth potential.

Target's new concept increases competitive pressure on Ulta.

Raising guidance supports revenue growth objectives.

Advances: Increase revenue growth by 6% to 7%
Strong sales growth supports revenue growth objective.

Advances: Increase revenue growth by 6% to 7%
Targets higher sales growth, aligning with revenue objectives.
