Tractor Supply (TSCO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-29
$33.65+6.45%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put TSCO beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Operating margin rate between 9.3% and 9.6% in fiscal 2026: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 4% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 27% growth a year, above the roughly 5% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 1% on a typical day and fell roughly 48% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskTSCO’s expansion depends on executing store and infrastructure investments while maintaining operating margins. Revenue growth reached 5.1% in third quarter 2026, after 2.3% in Q2 FY2026. Third-quarter GAAP earnings beat consensus by 7.5%. TSCO trades at 17× P/E versus the 14.5× peer median. Expectations look full because the market prices more growth than our forecast. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 28%. Fiscal 2026 operating-margin comparison needs review, so a margin breach is unverified. Peer multiples imply a price about 27% below where it trades; the thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. TSCO is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 30 analysts currently covering TSCO (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 16 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for TSCO in the last 4 months.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSCO Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Other Specialty Retail — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put TSCO next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Execute planned store and infrastructure investments
Announced 2027 store openings advance planned expansion, though execution and returns remain to be demonstrated.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $33.65
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $33.65.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Maintain operating margin rate and cost discipline
Capex discipline and targeted SG&A savings support cost control, though execution remains ahead.
Advances: Plan and execute capital expenditures for growth
New facility supports capital expenditures for growth.
Partnership could enhance growth in pet segment.
Loss of top executive may disrupt strategic execution.
Retrenchment suggests potential slowdown in growth initiatives.
Advances: Plan and execute capital expenditures for growth
CEO's purchase signals confidence in long-term growth potential.
Threatens: Expand store footprint and remodel existing stores
Closure of stores undermines growth and expansion objectives.