Reading ARHS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ARHS free→Reading ARHS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ARHS free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating that cash flow does not strongly support reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact ARHS's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.45. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $7.45 ARHS trades at 10× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $8.42 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $8.00–$12. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 12% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.25x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.23 → $0.16 (-29.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 14 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$240.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$547.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,287.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects consumer confidence and spending. This is key for Arhaus's revenue.
Confirms one read:GDP growth is revised up. This shows a stronger economy and more sales may happen.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is revised down. This shows economic weakness that could hurt sales.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ARHS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2 of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date of this Current Report, regardless…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$8.00 – $12.00 (median $9.25) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Other Specialty Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ARHS Arhaus, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | fair | elevated |
ULTA Ulta Beauty | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSCO Tractor Supply | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CHWY Chewy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | elevated |
BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on sustaining revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $311.4M in 2025-Q1 to $314.3M in 2026-Q1, showing a positive trajectory. Management's reaffirmation of guidance indicates confidence in sustaining growth.
“We remain confident in our full-year 2026 outlook and we are reaffirming our guidance.”
“Looking ahead to 2026, our Spring collection represents one of the most innovative and expressive assortments.”
“The Company is also providing fourth-quarter 2025 guidance for select financial metrics.”
Aim to enhance Adjusted EBITDA through operational efficiencies and strategic initiatives.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. While specific Adjusted EBITDA figures for 2026-Q1 are not provided, management's guidance for the full year indicates a focus on improvement. However, limited progress is visible in the financials.
“For the full year 2026, we expect Adjusted EBITDA of $150 million to $161 million.”
Ensure capital expenditures are within the guided range to support strategic growth.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management has set a capital expenditure range of $70M to $90M for the year. The focus is on maintaining expenditures within this range to support growth, but specific quarterly capex figures are not provided.
“Company-funded capital expenditures are expected to be $70 million to $90 million.”
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can affect consumer spending. This impacts Arhaus's sales and costs.
Confirms one read:The FOMC raises interest rates. This leads to less spending by consumers.
Confirms the other:The FOMC keeps rates the same or lowers them. This could help consumer spending.
Why it matters: This report will show consumer spending trends. It can impact Arhaus's sales outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales are growing month over month. This shows stronger demand from consumers.
Confirms the other:Retail sales are falling month over month. This suggests weaker spending by consumers.
and Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2 of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date of this Current Report, regardless…
Other Events On February 17, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company declared a special cash dividend on the Company's Class A and Class B common stock of $0.35 per share, payable on March 31, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on March 18, 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Co mpensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 2, 2026, John M. Roth resigned from the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Arhaus, Inc. (the “Company”). The resignation of Mr. Roth was not the result of any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to its operations, policies or practices. In connection with Mr. Roth’s resignation, the Board reduced the size of the Board…
and Exhibit 99.1 of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date of this Current Report, regardless of any general i…
“For Q1 2026, we expect Adjusted EBITDA of $13 million to $20 million.”