Reading BBW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BBW free→Reading BBW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BBW free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, BBW is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 38% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while earnings quality is fragile. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $32.53. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $33 BBW trades at 8× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $51 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 37% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.14x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.65 → $0.65 (+0.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 58.1% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$195.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$501.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,708.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Hitting this income target is key for Build-A-Bear's money and growth.
Confirms:Pre-tax income reported between $72M and $78M for 2026.
Disproves:Pre-tax income is below $65M. This raises worries about profits.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
New CEO appointment aligns with leadership stability.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 12, 2026, Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that the Company had promoted Voin Todorovic, to the additional role of Chief Administrative Officer effective as of June 11, 2026 (the “Promotion Effective Date”), while he will continue to serve as Chief Financial Officer of the Company. Prior to the promotion to serve as bot…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2027-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Other Specialty Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BBW Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ULTA Ulta Beauty | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSCO Tractor Supply | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CHWY Chewy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | elevated |
BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims for total revenue between $530 million and $550 million for fiscal 2026.
The company plans capital expenditures in the range of $22 million to $25 million for fiscal 2026.
The company expects pre-tax income to range from $72 million to $78 million for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Reaching this target is key for Build-A-Bear's growth plans. It shows if the company can expand its sales effectively.
Confirms:Revenue for 2026 reaches at least $530M, showing strong growth.
Disproves:Revenue is below $500M. This shows weak sales.
Why it matters: Hitting this capex target shows Build-A-Bear wants to grow and invest.
Confirms:Capital expenditures are between $22M and $25M for 2026.
Disproves:Capex is below $20M. This shows less investment.
This Current Report on Form 8-K and the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 contain certain statements that may be deemed to be “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Exchange Act. All statements in this report and in such exhibit not dealing with historical results are forward-looking and are based on various assumptions. The forward-looking statements in this report and in such exhibit are subject to risks and un…
Other Events. On June 11, 2026, the Board of Directors of Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. (the “Company”) declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.23 per share to be paid on July 9, 2026, to all holders of record of issued and outstanding shares of the Company’s common stock as of the close of business on June 25, 2026. On June 11, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the quarterly dividend. A copy of the press release has been filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 12, 2026, as part of a planned succession process, Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Sharon Price John will retire as its President and Chief Executive Officer following a transition period, and that the Company had appointed J. Christopher Hurt, 59, to become Chief Executive Officer following such transition perio…
This Current Report on Form 8-K and the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 contain certain statements that may be deemed to be “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Exchange Act. All statements in this report and in such exhibit not dealing with historical results are forward-looking and are based on various assumptions. The forward-looking statements in this report and in such exhibit are subject to risks and un…