Ulta Beauty (ULTA)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-15

$592.94-2.68%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Ulta Beauty’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

32.12 → 32.17 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 16 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditures between $400M and $450M	Profit margins are stable near 12%, and capital spending is focused between $400M and $450M.	Under Pressure	Capex exceeds $450M or falls below $400M significantly	Capital expenditures: $81.258M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $400M to $450M capex. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 202681,258,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain competitive position amid channel shifts and partnerships	A supporting condition in Ulta Beauty's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain or grow market share with new partnerships.	Improving	Significant loss of market share or partnership failures	Qualitative: Resilient demand & raised guidance vs. maintain share Ulta raised FY26 guidance after a Q2 beat. Target launched a competing beauty concept, but Ulta reports resilient demand and strong growth. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin near 12.3% to 12.4%	Profit margins are stable near 12%, and capital spending is focused between $400M and $450M.	Under Pressure	Operating margin falls below 11.9%	Operating margin: 12.51% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating margin >= 12.3%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 202612.505979 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 02d9ced0-0ba1-44f9-b8e5-c725e21a3292. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of 6% to 7% in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Ulta Beauty's published investment case. The stated target is 6% to 7% YoY revenue growth.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26	Revenue growth: 8.87% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 6% to 7% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 20268.865331 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 02d9ced0-0ba1-44f9-b8e5-c725e21a3292. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Fiscal 2026 net sales growth guidance was initially 6% to 7% and was updated to 6.7% to 7.2% by 2026-Q3. This reflects management's consistent emphasis on revenue growth, with guidance trajectory slightly improving, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$32.17

$31.94 → $32.17 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$13.96B

$13.95B → $13.96B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-07-25	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-07-26	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-07-27	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-07-28	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-07-29	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-07-30	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-07-31	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-08-01	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-08-02	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-08-03	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-08-04	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-08-05	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-08-06	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-08-08	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-08-09	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-08-10	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-08-12	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-08-13	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-08-14	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-08-15	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-08-16	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-08-17	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-08-18	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-08-19	$31.94	$13,949,382,768	18 / 20
2026-08-20	$31.93	$13,952,548,607	17 / 20
2026-08-21	$31.93	$13,952,548,607	16 / 20
2026-08-22	$31.93	$13,952,548,607	16 / 20
2026-08-23	$31.93	$13,952,547,354	16 / 20
2026-08-24	$31.94	$13,953,819,895	16 / 20
2026-08-25	$31.94	$13,953,020,085	16 / 20
2026-08-26	$31.95	$13,955,067,225	16 / 20
2026-08-27	$31.95	$13,955,067,225	16 / 20
2026-08-28	$31.97	$13,955,899,703	16 / 20
2026-08-29	$32.13	$13,963,811,370	16 / 20
2026-08-30	$32.13	$13,963,811,370	16 / 20
2026-08-31	$32.13	$13,963,811,370	16 / 20
2026-09-01	$32.11	$13,962,194,703	16 / 20
2026-09-02	$32.11	$13,962,178,874	16 / 20
2026-09-03	$32.11	$13,962,178,874	16 / 20
2026-09-04	$32.11	$13,962,178,874	16 / 20
2026-09-05	$32.11	$13,962,178,874	16 / 20
2026-09-06	$32.11	$13,962,178,874	16 / 20
2026-09-07	$32.11	$13,962,178,874	16 / 20
2026-09-08	$32.11	$13,962,178,874	16 / 20
2026-09-09	$32.12	$13,963,001,874	16 / 20
2026-09-10	$32.13	$13,959,343,455	17 / 20
2026-09-11	$32.12	$13,954,555,311	17 / 21
2026-09-12	$32.12	$13,954,555,311	17 / 21
2026-09-13	$32.12	$13,954,556,407	17 / 21
2026-09-14	$32.12	$13,954,556,407	17 / 21
2026-09-15	$32.12	$13,954,572,551	17 / 21
2026-09-16	$32.12	$13,954,572,551	17 / 21
2026-09-17	$32.15	$13,958,732,551	16 / 21
2026-09-18	$32.15	$13,958,732,551	16 / 21
2026-09-19	$32.15	$13,958,732,551	16 / 21
2026-09-20	$32.15	$13,958,732,551	16 / 21
2026-09-21	$32.15	$13,958,732,551	16 / 21
2026-09-22	$32.15	$13,958,732,551	16 / 21
2026-09-23	$32.15	$13,958,732,551	16 / 21
2026-09-24	$32.15	$13,958,732,551	16 / 21
2026-09-25	$32.15	$13,958,732,551	16 / 21
2026-09-26	$32.16	$13,958,732,551	16 / 21
2026-09-27	$32.16	$13,958,732,551	16 / 21
2026-09-28	$32.16	$13,958,732,551	16 / 21
2026-09-29	$32.16	$13,958,732,551	16 / 21
2026-09-30	$32.17	$13,958,732,551	16 / 21
2026-10-01	$32.17	$13,958,732,551	16 / 21
2026-10-02	$32.17	$13,959,372,551	16 / 21
2026-10-03	$32.17	$13,959,372,551	16 / 21
2026-10-04	$32.17	$13,959,372,551	16 / 21
2026-10-05	$32.17	$13,959,372,551	16 / 21
2026-10-06	$32.17	$13,959,372,551	16 / 21
2026-10-07	$32.17	$13,959,372,551	16 / 21
2026-10-08	$32.17	$13,959,372,551	16 / 21
2026-10-09	$32.17	$13,959,372,551	16 / 21
2026-10-10	$32.17	$13,959,372,551	16 / 21
2026-10-11	$32.17	$13,959,372,551	16 / 21
2026-10-12	$32.17	$13,959,372,551	16 / 21
2026-10-13	$32.17	$13,959,372,551	16 / 21
2026-10-14	$32.17	$13,959,372,551	16 / 21
2026-10-15	$32.17	$13,959,372,551	16 / 21

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	19	8	2
2026-06-01	19	7	1
2026-07-01	19	7	1
2026-08-01	19	7	1
2026-09-01	19	9	1
2026-10-01	19	9	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditures between $400M and $450MPublished status: Under Pressure
Operating margin near 12.3% to 12.4%Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth of 6% to 7% in fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Dec 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-36.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Ulta Beauty outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment is characterized as a durable compounder, with management focused on steady revenue growth and stable margins. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats, but there are risks from the broader sector environment.

What's priced into Ulta Beauty

The market currently prices ULTA at a premium compared to peers, reflecting expectations of strong execution and growth. However, the valuation is considered stretched, indicating that investors may be cautious about potential weaknesses in execution or external pressures.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve its revenue growth target of 6% to 7%, with recent guidance slightly improved. Operating margins have remained stable, but there are mixed signals regarding capital expenditures, which could impact future growth.

What Ulta Beauty hinges on

Key factors for ULTA's future include the potential for management to maintain or improve guidance, the impact of inflation on consumer spending, and the performance of major sector players like Amazon and Alibaba. Any negative shifts in these areas could weigh on ULTA's performance.