Savers Value Village, Inc. (SVV)

Q: What's priced into Savers Value Village, Inc. (SVV) stock?

SVV is expensive versus peers, with a 1.94 peer premium and a recent rise in its valuation score. The expectations gap is near neutral, so the evidence does not point to a large gap between expectations and fundamentals; valuation is the main source of fragility.

Q: What does the Savers Value Village, Inc. (SVV) outlook hinge on?

Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis hinges on continued delivery against revenue and adjusted EBITDA goals and on keeping guidance intact. Consumer Discretionary sector support may persist if bellwethers such as AMZN, BABA, and PDD keep beating and guiding higher, but misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken that support.

NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-23

$9.37-4.87%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Savers Value Village, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.61 → 0.60 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	472.02M
EPS	—	0.181
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.77B–$1.79B	1.78B
EPS	—	0.493
Capital expenditure	$125M–$145M	—
EBITDA	$265M–$275Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.92B
EPS	—	0.602

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve adjusted EBITDA between $260M and $275M in fiscal 2026	Adjusted EBITDA target is $267.5M.	Improving	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $260M in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised slightly to $265 million to $275 million in 2026-Q2 from $260 million to $275 million previously. The Company reported three consecutive quarters of year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth through 2026-Q2, indicating progress toward this profitability target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Keep capital spending between $125M and $145M in fiscal 2026	The company plans $135M in capital spending.	Intact	Capital spending falls outside $125M to $145M range in FY26	Capital expenditures: $29.725M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $125M and <= $145M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202629,725,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS target of $0.45 per share in fiscal 2026	Earnings per share should reach $0.45 next year.	Intact	EPS falls below $0.41 or above $0.48 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.14 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.41 and <= $0.48. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.14 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 42d0548e-4bfa-48eb-9410-a2ba317c1f99. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain revenue between $1.76B and $1.79B in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Savers Value Village, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.76B and <= $1.79B.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.76B or above $1.79B in FY26	Revenue: $448.219M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.76B and <= $1.79B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026448,219,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 42d0548e-4bfa-48eb-9410-a2ba317c1f99. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $370.1 million in 2025-Q1 to $448.2 million in 2026-Q2. The Company maintained its fiscal 2026 net sales guidance at $1.77 billion to $1.79 billion across these quarters, indicating delivery on this growth priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$0.60

$0.59 → $0.60 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$1.92B

$1.92B → $1.92B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-07-25	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-07-26	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-07-27	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-07-28	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-07-29	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-07-30	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-07-31	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-08-01	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-08-03	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-08-04	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-08-05	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-08-06	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$0.59	$1,921,159,612	6 / 7
2026-08-09	$0.59	$1,921,159,612	6 / 7
2026-08-10	$0.59	$1,921,159,612	6 / 7
2026-08-12	$0.59	$1,921,159,612	6 / 7
2026-08-13	$0.59	$1,921,159,612	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$0.59	$1,921,159,612	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$0.59	$1,921,159,612	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$0.59	$1,921,159,612	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$0.59	$1,921,159,612	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$0.59	$1,921,159,612	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$0.59	$1,921,159,612	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-08-27	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-08-28	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-08-29	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-08-30	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$0.61	$1,924,408,625	6 / 8
2026-09-20	$0.61	$1,924,408,625	6 / 8
2026-09-21	$0.61	$1,924,408,625	6 / 8
2026-09-22	$0.61	$1,924,408,625	6 / 8
2026-09-23	$0.61	$1,924,408,625	6 / 8
2026-09-24	$0.61	$1,924,408,625	6 / 8
2026-09-25	$0.61	$1,924,408,625	6 / 8
2026-09-26	$0.61	$1,924,408,625	6 / 8
2026-09-27	$0.61	$1,924,408,625	6 / 8
2026-09-28	$0.61	$1,924,408,625	6 / 8
2026-09-29	$0.61	$1,924,408,625	6 / 8
2026-09-30	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-01	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-02	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-03	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-04	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-05	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-06	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-07	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-08	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-09	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-10	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-11	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-12	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-13	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-14	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-15	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-16	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-17	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-18	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-19	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-20	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-21	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-22	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-23	$0.60	$1,924,454,580	6 / 8
2026-10-24	$0.60	$1,924,454,580	6 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	8	3
2026-06-01	8	3
2026-07-01	8	3
2026-08-01	8	3
2026-09-01	8	4
2026-10-01	8	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted EBITDA between $260M and $275M in fiscal 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Keep capital spending between $125M and $145M in fiscal 2026Capital expenditures: $29.725M
EPS target of $0.45 per share in fiscal 2026Diluted EPS: $0.14 per share
Maintain revenue between $1.76B and $1.79B in fiscal 2026Revenue: $448.219M

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-47.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Savers Value Village, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SVV is a growth-and-profitability execution story, with a smaller-cap risk profile rather than a proven durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, supported by recent results, but earnings quality is still rated loss-making and overall risk is elevated.

What's priced into Savers Value Village, Inc.

SVV is expensive versus peers, with a 1.94 peer premium and a recent rise in its valuation score. The expectations gap is near neutral, so the evidence does not point to a large gap between expectations and fundamentals; valuation is the main source of fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the company has maintained fiscal 2026 revenue guidance and slightly raised adjusted EBITDA guidance, while adjusted EBITDA grew year over year for three consecutive quarters through 2026-Q2. A guidance cut on the next call is a clear risk, and the capital spending plan remains under watch; the recent earnings beat is supportive but does not remove the risk associated with its smaller size and past deep miss.

What Savers Value Village, Inc. hinges on

Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis hinges on continued delivery against revenue and adjusted EBITDA goals and on keeping guidance intact. Consumer Discretionary sector support may persist if bellwethers such as AMZN, BABA, and PDD keep beating and guiding higher, but misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken that support.

Bottom line

The multi-year view is intact, with execution progress offset by loss-making earnings quality, elevated risk, and expensive peer valuation. The key evidence to watch is guidance and continued progress on profitability. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	472.02M
EPS	—	0.181
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.77B–$1.79B	1.78B
EPS	—	0.493
Capital expenditure	$125M–$145M	—
EBITDA	$265M–$275Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.92B
EPS	—	0.602

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$0.60

$0.59 → $0.60 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$1.92B

$1.92B → $1.92B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-07-25	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-07-26	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-07-27	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-07-28	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-07-29	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-07-30	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-07-31	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-08-01	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-08-03	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-08-04	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-08-05	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-08-06	$0.59	$1,921,157,632	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$0.59	$1,921,159,612	6 / 7
2026-08-09	$0.59	$1,921,159,612	6 / 7
2026-08-10	$0.59	$1,921,159,612	6 / 7
2026-08-12	$0.59	$1,921,159,612	6 / 7
2026-08-13	$0.59	$1,921,159,612	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$0.59	$1,921,159,612	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$0.59	$1,921,159,612	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$0.59	$1,921,159,612	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$0.59	$1,921,159,612	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$0.59	$1,921,159,612	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$0.59	$1,921,159,612	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-08-27	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-08-28	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-08-29	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-08-30	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$0.61	$1,928,009,378	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$0.61	$1,928,009,488	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$0.61	$1,924,408,625	6 / 8
2026-09-20	$0.61	$1,924,408,625	6 / 8
2026-09-21	$0.61	$1,924,408,625	6 / 8
2026-09-22	$0.61	$1,924,408,625	6 / 8
2026-09-23	$0.61	$1,924,408,625	6 / 8
2026-09-24	$0.61	$1,924,408,625	6 / 8
2026-09-25	$0.61	$1,924,408,625	6 / 8
2026-09-26	$0.61	$1,924,408,625	6 / 8
2026-09-27	$0.61	$1,924,408,625	6 / 8
2026-09-28	$0.61	$1,924,408,625	6 / 8
2026-09-29	$0.61	$1,924,408,625	6 / 8
2026-09-30	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-01	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-02	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-03	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-04	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-05	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-06	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-07	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-08	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-09	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-10	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-11	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-12	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-13	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-14	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-15	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-16	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-17	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-18	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-19	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-20	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-21	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-22	$0.61	$1,924,409,125	6 / 8
2026-10-23	$0.60	$1,924,454,580	6 / 8
2026-10-24	$0.60	$1,924,454,580	6 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings