Leslie's Inc (LESL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-09
$0.50-7.15%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Leslie's aims for $1.1B to $1.25B revenue in 2026. They target $55M to $75M adjusted EBITDA. Capital spending is planned between $20M and $25M. New leadership may help improve results.
The company lost money last year and missed earnings often. Sales fell sharply last quarter. Closing stores shows trouble. Profit goals look hard to reach.
The market expects about 1% revenue decline next year. Our fair value is $4.62, reflecting a cheap valuation. We see risks to hitting revenue and profit targets.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $55 million in FY 2026
Breaks if: Capital expenditures fall outside $20M to $25M range in FY 2026
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1.1 billion in FY 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a turnaround investment, as LESL is attempting to transform its operations while dealing with weak financial results. The current thesis state reflects mixed progress in management's priorities and elevated risks of further earnings misses.
The market appears to price in a low level of fragility, indicating that while LESL is seen as cheap compared to peers, expectations for performance are low. The expectations gap suggests that the market anticipates continued challenges ahead.
Fundamentals are likely to remain weak in the near term, given the high probability of an earnings miss and recent declines in revenue and margins. Management's focus on cost structure and revenue growth shows mixed results, which may continue to impact performance.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute its strategic transformation and improve revenue growth. Additionally, external factors such as inflation trends and performance of sector bellwethers will be critical in shaping the outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Leslie's withdrew its FY2026 guidance. This impacts revenue growth outlook. S&P downgraded Leslie's rating due to restructuring risk. This indicates increased financial distress.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Management has set revenue guidance for FY 2026 between $1,100 million and $1,250 million.
In the next 1 to 3 years, LESL's success will depend on its execution of strategic priorities and external market conditions. Not investment advice.