Leslie's Inc (LESL)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-23

$0.06+93.75%

Close 2026-10-20 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Leslie's Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2027-01-04
Revenue	—	143M
EPS	—	-8.31
Annual ending 2027-10-04
Revenue	—	1.09B
EPS	—	-5.33
Annual ending 2028-10-04
Revenue	—	1.19B
EPS	—	-1.48

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA between $55M and $75M in FY 2026	They target $55M to $75M adjusted EBITDA.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $55 million in FY 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Capital expenditures between $20M and $25M in FY 2026	Capital spending is planned between $20M and $25M.	Intact	Capital expenditures fall outside $20M to $25M range in FY 2026	Capital expenditures: $1.01M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: between $20 million and $25 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 20261,010,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue between $1.1B and $1.25B in FY 2026	A primary condition in Leslie's Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.1 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.1 billion in FY 2026	Revenue: $458.493M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.1 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 2026458,493,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 725c5a02-f4a4-48aa-9fda-88926b70658b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-04 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	3
2026-06-01	1	3
2026-07-01	1	2
2026-08-01	1	2
2026-09-01	0	2
2026-10-01	0	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA between $55M and $75M in FY 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Capital expenditures between $20M and $25M in FY 2026Capital expenditures: $1.01M
Revenue between $1.1B and $1.25B in FY 2026Revenue: $458.493M

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

7.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-99.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Leslie's Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk turnaround, not a proven durable grower: the business is loss-making, recent performance is weak, and management execution is volatile. The thesis is on watch, with medium confidence, as the latest results remain well below the industry cohort.

What's priced into Leslie's Inc

LESL screens cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence and the expectations gap is sharply negative. The evidence labels pricing as justified and finds no concentrated fragility, but it does not show that weak results or the listed risks are fully reflected.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the risk of an earnings miss is elevated after consecutive misses, and a guidance cut would add pressure to an already weak operating picture. Cost reductions and disciplined capital spending are progressing, but the latest year-over-year figures show lower revenue and gross profit; earlier sales growth and stronger comparable sales have not yet established a consistent recovery.

What Leslie's Inc hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on whether cost right-sizing and pricing changes can support sales and improve the financial trajectory without further revenue weakness. Guidance and execution are key swing factors, alongside the legal and listing events; sector strength could help the backdrop, while weaker results from major consumer companies could remove that support.

Bottom line

For a 1-to-3-year view, LESL remains a high-risk turnaround with mixed execution and weak recent fundamentals, rather than a confirmed recovery. The thesis depends on steadier sales and better execution, with elevated near-term earnings risk and recent legal and listing concerns. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.