Reading GTIM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GTIM free→Reading GTIM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GTIM free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the company has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, while GTIM trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 67% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.28 GTIM trades at 7× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $3.92 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 67% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.85x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$84.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$484.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,433.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The FOMC's interest rate decision affects consumer spending. Lower rates may boost restaurant sales.
Confirms:FOMC lowers interest rates or keeps them steady.
Disproves:FOMC raises interest rates.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GTIM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Good Times Restaurants Inc. issued a press release announcing earnings and other financial results for the fiscal 2026 second quarter ended March 31, 2026, and that management would review these results in a conference call on May 7, 2026, at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Restaurants.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GTIM Good Times Restaurants Inc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
MCD McDonald's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | moderate |
SBUX Starbucks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
YUM Yum! Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing profit measures for both restaurant concepts during fiscal 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net income increased from -$3,000 in 2025-Q4 to $149,000 in 2026-Q2, indicating progress in profitability. The trajectory shows delivering on the stated priority of improving profit measures.
“CEO: 'I am optimistic about our sales projections for both concepts...'”
“CEO: 'I am optimistic that fiscal 2026 will see improved performance for both brands...'”
Optimistic about sales projections for both restaurant concepts in fiscal 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue increased from $32.7M in 2026-Q1 to $33.2M in 2026-Q2, reflecting positive movement in sales projections. The trajectory aligns with management's optimistic outlook.
“CEO: 'I am optimistic about our sales projections for both concepts...'”
Why it matters: This report shows retail sales trends. Strong sales could help Good Times Restaurants.
Confirms:Retail sales growth above 0.5% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales growth below -0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: More people filing for unemployment can show problems in the economy. This might lower restaurant sales.
Confirms:Weekly claims fall below 200,000.
Disproves:Weekly claims rise above 300,000.
Why it matters: GDP growth impacts consumer confidence. Strong GDP can lead to higher spending at restaurants.
Confirms:GDP growth above 2% for the first quarter.
Disproves:GDP growth below 1% for the first quarter.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, Good Times Restaurants Inc. issued a press release announcing earnings and other financial results for the fiscal 2026 first quarter ended December 30, 2025, and that management would review these results in a conference call on February 5, 2026, at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On December 23, 2025, Good Times Restaurants Inc. issued a press release announcing earnings and other financial results for the fiscal 2025 fourth quarter and fiscal year ended September 30, 2025, and that management would review these results in a conference call on December 23, 2025, at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On September 30, 2025, Good Times Restaurants Inc. (the “Company”) and each of its wholly owned subsidiaries, as guarantors, entered into a Third Amendment to Credit Agreement and Consent (the “Amendment”) with respect to the Company’s Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with Cadence Bank (“Cadence”), as Administrative Agent and Lender, entered into on April 20, 2023, as amended on May 22, 2024 and May 30, 2024 (collectively, the “Credit Agreement…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information contained in
“CEO: 'I am optimistic that fiscal 2026 will see improved performance for both brands...'”