Reading GT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GT free→Reading GT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GT free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 88% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. If GT cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.59. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6.59 GT trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $56 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $7.00–$9.00. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 88% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.30x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.08 → $-0.53 (-584.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 30% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 56.5% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$171.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$369.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,169.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A larger loss would signal worsening financial health and demand trends for Goodyear.
Confirms:Q2 adjusted net loss is over $112 million. This shows deeper issues.
Disproves:Q2 adjusted net loss is less than or equal to $112 million, showing improvement.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On June 1, 2026, The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (the “ Company ”) entered into an underwriting agreement with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, as representative of the several underwriters named therein (the “ Underwriting Agreement ”), for the issuance and sale by the Company of $1,050,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of its 8.875% Senior Notes due 2032 (the “ Notes ”). The Notes will be guaranteed, jointly and severally, on an unsecured basis, by the Company’s wholly-owned…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$7.00 – $9.00 (median $9.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-04
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Discretionary (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GT Goodyear Tire & Rubber | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
DKS Dick's Sporting Goods | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | full | moderate |
SN SharkNinja | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
H Hyatt | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on cost transformation to mitigate higher raw material costs and inflation.
Commitment to enhance brand value through differentiated products and services.
Continue to realize benefits from the Goodyear Forward initiative.
Focus on enhancing operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Aim to boost revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would show weak demand and hurt Goodyear's recovery efforts.
Confirms:Q1 2026 net sales reported below $3.7 billion.
Disproves:Q1 2026 net sales reported above $3.9 billion.
Why it matters: This result will show if Goodyear can manage costs amid weak demand. Lower income signals ongoing challenges.
Confirms:Segment operating income was below $95 million for Q1 2026.
Disproves:Segment operating income was above $95 million for Q1 2026.
Why it matters: A larger decline would indicate deeper issues in demand and market share loss. This could hurt future earnings.
Confirms:Tire unit volume decline reported greater than 17% for Q1 2026.
Disproves:Tire unit volume decline reported less than 17% for Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Closing this debt is key for Goodyear's finances and stability.
Confirms one read:The debt issuance successfully closes on June 4, 2026.
Confirms the other:The debt issuance does not close as planned on June 4, 2026.
Why it matters: A significant revenue drop would confirm ongoing challenges in sustaining growth. This could hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported below $3.49B, which is a 10% decline from $3.88B in Q1 2026.
Disproves:Q2 revenue is over $3.49B. This shows better revenue stability.
Why it matters: Successful repayment will improve Goodyear's financial health and reduce interest costs. This is key for future stability.
Confirms:Confirmation of repayment of the 4.875% and 7.625% notes by March 2027.
Disproves:Failure to repay the 4.875% and 7.625% notes by March 2027.
Why it matters: A smaller cash flow deficit would indicate better financial health. This could reassure investors.
Confirms:Cash from operations reported better than -$600M, improving from -$718M in Q1 2026.
Disproves:Cash from operations is worse than -$600M. This shows ongoing financial issues.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows progress in cutting costs. This could help investors feel good.
Confirms:Operating income is above -$100M. This shows a recovery from -$180M in Q1 2026.
Disproves:Operating income is still below -$100M. This shows ongoing cost problems.
Why it matters: Higher benefits show good cost management and better operations. This helps the growth plan.
Confirms:Goodyear Forward benefits were above $107 million for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Goodyear Forward benefits were below $107 million for Q2 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. A copy of the News Release issued by The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company on Wednesday, May 6, 2026, describing its results of operations for the first quarter of 2026, is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On March 16, 2026, The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (the “Company”) approved a rationalization plan in Europe, Middle East and Africa (“EMEA”) to improve its cost structure as part of actions the Company expects to take in order to streamline its sales and distribution model and simplify business processes. The proposed restructuring actions would lead to a reduction of approximately 600 positions across multiple countries within EMEA, whil…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. A copy of the News Release issued by The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company on Monday, February 9, 2026, describing its results of operations for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the year ended December 31, 2025, is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.