Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$4.26-3.84%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Goodyear Tire & Rubber’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	4.86B
EPS	—	0.153
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	17.65B
EPS	—	-0.918
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	18.18B
EPS	—	0.136

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Strengthen cost structure to improve operating income	Goodyear is working to improve its cost structure with rationalization plans.	Under Pressure	Segment operating income falls below $95 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Deliver Goodyear Forward transformation benefits	The Goodyear Forward program has delivered $107 million in benefits recently.	Under Pressure	Goodyear Forward benefits fall below $100 million per quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve operating margin near $37.5 million by 2028	The company aims for an operating margin near $37.5 million by 2028.	Improving	Operating margin falls below $35 million in FY28	Operating margin: -1.2% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating margin between $35 million and $40 million by 2028. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Aug 6, 2026-1.2 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$0.65 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$18.18B

$18.01B → $18.18B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.65	$18,010,891,620	8 / 9
2026-07-25	$0.65	$18,010,858,283	5 / 7
2026-07-26	$0.64	$18,010,858,283	5 / 7
2026-07-27	$0.64	$18,010,858,283	5 / 7
2026-07-28	$0.65	$18,010,891,620	8 / 9
2026-07-29	$0.65	$18,010,891,620	8 / 9
2026-07-30	$0.65	$18,010,891,620	8 / 9
2026-07-31	$0.65	$18,010,891,620	8 / 9
2026-08-01	$0.64	$18,010,858,283	5 / 7
2026-08-02	$0.64	$18,010,858,283	5 / 7
2026-08-03	$0.65	$18,010,891,620	8 / 9
2026-08-04	$0.65	$18,010,891,620	8 / 9
2026-08-05	$0.64	$18,010,858,283	5 / 7
2026-08-06	$0.64	$17,992,113,840	8 / 9
2026-08-07	$0.63	$18,186,503,068	5 / 7
2026-08-08	$0.63	$18,186,503,068	5 / 7
2026-08-09	$0.61	$17,975,133,840	7 / 9
2026-08-10	$0.63	$18,186,503,068	5 / 7
2026-08-12	$0.55	$17,946,581,260	7 / 9
2026-08-13	$0.63	$18,186,503,068	5 / 7
2026-08-14	$0.63	$18,186,503,068	5 / 7
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$18,186,503,068	4 / 7
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$18,186,503,068	4 / 7
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$18,186,503,068	4 / 7
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$18,186,503,068	4 / 7
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$18,186,503,068	4 / 7
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$18,257,537,965	4 / 7
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$18,259,201,277	4 / 7
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$18,259,201,277	4 / 7
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$18,259,201,277	4 / 7
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$18,259,201,277	4 / 7
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$18,259,201,277	4 / 7
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$18,259,201,277	4 / 7
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$18,259,201,277	4 / 7
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$18,259,201,277	4 / 7
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$18,288,568,157	4 / 7
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$18,288,568,157	4 / 7
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$18,288,568,157	4 / 7
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$18,288,568,157	4 / 7
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$18,288,568,157	4 / 7
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$18,288,568,157	4 / 7
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$18,288,568,157	4 / 7
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$18,344,135,220	4 / 7
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$18,337,060,619	4 / 7
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$18,337,060,619	4 / 7
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$18,337,060,619	4 / 7
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$18,337,060,619	4 / 7
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$18,337,060,619	4 / 7
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$18,337,060,619	4 / 7
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$18,337,060,619	4 / 7
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$18,337,060,619	4 / 7
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$18,337,060,619	4 / 7
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$18,337,060,619	4 / 7
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$18,337,060,619	4 / 7
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$18,337,060,619	4 / 7
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$18,334,260,619	4 / 7
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$18,285,260,619	4 / 7
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$18,285,260,619	4 / 7
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$18,285,260,619	4 / 7
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$18,285,260,619	4 / 7
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$18,285,260,619	4 / 7
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$18,177,087,663	4 / 7
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$18,177,087,663	4 / 7
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$18,177,087,663	4 / 7
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$18,177,087,663	4 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	6	1
2026-06-01	3	6	1
2026-07-01	3	6	1
2026-08-01	3	6	1
2026-09-01	3	6	1
2026-10-01	3	6	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 19

$4.40New observation · no comparable prior

$0$2.42$4.84

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Strengthen cost structure to improve operating incomePublished status: Under Pressure
Deliver Goodyear Forward transformation benefitsPublished status: Under Pressure
Achieve operating margin near $37.5 million by 2028Operating margin: -1.2%

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-60.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Goodyear Tire & Rubber outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

GT is a turnaround and cost-restructuring case, not a steady compounder, with elevated risk and a loss-making profile. The thesis is in a watch state as recent performance has lagged its industry cohort, although the evidence does not show a fresh break.

What's priced into Goodyear Tire & Rubber

The valuation evidence describes GT as cheap versus peers, but the expectations gap is negative and model confidence is low. The evidence does not support a clear claim that the market already expects a successful recovery.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, facility closures and Goodyear Forward benefits may improve costs, while original equipment volumes and market share gains support growth efforts. Progress is mixed, recent financial performance is weak, and GT has missed across recent quarters. Near-term execution remains uncertain despite a quiet miss-risk rating.

What Goodyear Tire & Rubber hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while stronger earnings and guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop. Weakness from those same companies could remove that support. The thesis also depends on delivering the targeted savings and sustaining program benefits without worsening the weak financial trend.