First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-29
$12.74+1.84%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put FWRG beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Restaurants is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Achieve 12% to 14% revenue growth in 2026: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 19% over the past year.
View GrowthManagement screens weak on capital allocation, earnings delivery, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 46% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskFWRG’s premium rests on durable growth, despite steady recent financial performance. Revenue grew 15.2% year over year, but Q2 FY2026 earnings missed. It trades at 37× P/E versus a 16× peer median, near its 36× history. The price reflects less growth than our forecast, leaving the peer premium dependent on durable growth. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability at 34%. The 2026 revenue-growth pillar needs review because its comparison is unverified. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% below where it trades; the thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. FWRG is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 10 analysts currently covering FWRG (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 3 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for FWRG in the last 4 months.
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Compare FWRG with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FWRG Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Restaurants — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put FWRG next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Expand with 59 to 63 new restaurants in 2026
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $12.74
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $12.74.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Expansion plans align with management's growth objectives.