Reading DIN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DIN free→Reading DIN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DIN free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been volatile, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 59% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Watching for guidance changes could be significant, as a cut would likely lead to a negative impact, while a raise could provide a momentum boost. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $32.30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $32 DIN trades at 7× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $79 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 59% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.93x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.35 → $1.24 (-8.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$222.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$444.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,468.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report will show trends in consumer spending. It can impact Dine Brands' sales outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease by more than 1% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DIN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 1, 2026, the board of directors of Dine Brands Global, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Corporation”), appointed Lawrence Y. Kim, President, IHOP Business Unit, to the additional position of Chief Commercial Officer of the Corporation, effective as of June 1, 2026. In connection with the appointment, the compensation committee of the boar…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Restaurants.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DIN Dine Brands Global, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MCD McDonald's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | moderate |
SBUX Starbucks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
YUM Yum! Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
13 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on IHOP's domestic development with a range of 10 net fewer to 10 net new openings.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management has consistently guided IHOP's domestic development activity to range between 10 net fewer and 10 net new openings. The financials do not provide specific evidence of progress on this priority, indicating limited substantive delivery so far.
“Domestic development activity for IHOP is expected to be between 10 net fewer restaurants and 10 net new openings.”
“Domestic development activity for IHOP is expected to be between 10 net fewer restaurants and 10 net new openings.”
Maintain consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance between $220 million and $230 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management has maintained guidance for consolidated adjusted EBITDA between $220 million and $230 million. The financials show operating income of $10.1 million in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards the annual target.
“Consolidated adjusted EBITDA is expected to range between approximately $220 million and $230 million.”
Guide capital expenditures to range between $25 million and $35 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management has consistently guided capital expenditures to range between $25 million and $35 million. The financials do not provide specific capex figures for 2026-Q1, indicating limited visibility on progress towards this target.
“Capital expenditures are expected to range between approximately $25 million and $35 million.”
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, Dine Brands Global, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Corporation”), issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 financial results (the “Earnings Release”). Subsequent to the issuance of the Earnings Release, the Corporation discovered that, due to an inadvertent error, adjusted net income for the first quarter of 2026 was reported as $13.5 million and adjusted earnings per diluted share was reported as $1.07. The cor…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, Dine Brands Global, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Corporation”), issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 financial results. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including the related information set forth in the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein, is be…
Other Events. On May 14, 2026, Dine Brands Global, Inc. (the “Corporation”) issued a press release announcing that the Board of Directors of the Corporation declared a second quarter 2026 cash dividend of $0.19 per share of common stock, payable on July 10, 2026, to the Corporation’s stockholders of record as of the close of business on June 24, 2026. The press release also announced that, effective May 14, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Corporation approved a new share repurchase progra…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 25, 2026, Dine Brands Global, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Corporation”), issued a press release announcing its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 financial results. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including the related information set forth in the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by…
“Consolidated adjusted EBITDA is expected to range between approximately $220 million and $230 million.”
“Capital expenditures are expected to range between approximately $25 million and $35 million.”