Reading CRMT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CRMT free→Reading CRMT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CRMT free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto & Truck DealershipsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and it has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with CRMT trading below typical compared to sector peers. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.34. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.69 CRMT trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $25 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 89% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.33x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.70 → $-0.70 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$329.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$868.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $9,663.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows consumer spending trends. This matters for America's Car-Mart's outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales rise month over month, showing stronger consumer spending.
Confirms the other:Retail sales drop month over month, showing weaker consumer demand.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CRMT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As disclosed in its Current Report on Form 8-K filed on June 5, 2026, America’s Car-Mart, Inc., (the “Company”) reported that the agent (the “Agent”) and the lenders (the “Lenders”) under the Company’s Credit and Guaranty Agreement, dated as of October 30, 2025 (the “Credit Agreement”), agreed not to exercise remedies under the Credit Agreement as a result of actual or anticipated defaults or events of default under the Credit Agreement (the “Lender…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CRMT America's Car-Mart Inc/TX | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 20 of 100 | — | high |
ORLY O’Reilly Automotive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
AZO AutoZone | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | moderate |
PAG Penske Automotive Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | full | moderate |
17 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company is evaluating strategic alternatives, including potential financing, recapitalization, restructuring, mergers and acquisitions.
The company has approved a retention program for senior management and key employees to ensure leadership stability.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 1, 2026, America's Car-Mart, Inc. (the "Company") received confirmation from Silver Point Finance, LLC, as Administrative Agent and Collateral Agent (the "Agent"), acting on behalf of the agents and the lenders under the Credit and Guaranty Agreement dated as of October 30, 2025, among the Company, Colonial Auto Finance, Inc. and Texas Car-Mart, Inc., as Borrowers, the Company, as Parent, the subsidiaries party thereto, the lenders party the…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement The information set forth in
Other Events. As previously disclosed, the Special Committee of the Board of Directors, composed of Adam Paul (Chair), Joshua Welch, and Jonathan Buba, is overseeing the Company’s evaluation of strategic alternatives, including potential financing, recapitalization, restructuring, mergers and acquisitions, and other strategic transactions. Houlihan Lokey Capital, Inc. and FTI Consulting, Inc. are serving as the Company's financial advisors in connection with these efforts. The Company is work…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Additional Independent Director On May 22, 2026, the Board increased the size of the Board from nine members to ten members and appointed Adam Paul as an independent director, effective immediately. Simultaneously, the Board also appointed Mr. Paul to the Special Committee described below under