Reading CNNE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CNNE free→Reading CNNE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CNNE free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with CNNE trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 66% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and the performance of sector bellwethers like MCD, SBUX, and YUM. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.05. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $14 CNNE trades at 1× p/s — 1.3× the 1× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $11 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 26% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.11x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.44 → $-0.45 (-1.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$154.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$323.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,997.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This target shows if the company can improve its earnings. Strong earnings are important for investor confidence.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA was between $80 million and $90 million for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA is below $80 million for Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CNNE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 10, 2026, Bryan D. Coy resigned from his position as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Cannae Holdings, Inc. (the "Company" or "Cannae"). Mr. Coy’s resignation is not due to any disagreement with the Company or the Board of Directors. In connection with Mr. Coy’s resignation, the Company has agreed to (i) accelerate th…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Restaurants.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CNNE Cannae Holdings, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 4 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MCD McDonald's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | full | moderate |
SBUX Starbucks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
YUM Yum! Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve Free Cash Flow ranging from $35 million to $45 million for Q2 2026.
Management targets Adjusted EBITDA between $80 million and $90 million for Q2 2026.
Management expects revenue to range between $490 million and $505 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This target shows if the company can grow its sales. Meeting this target is crucial for future growth.
Confirms:Revenue reported between $490 million and $505 million for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Revenue remains below $490 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in the Consumer Discretionary sector may show a recovery. This helps Cannae Holdings.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth turns positive after being negative for a period.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is still negative. This shows the sector is still shrinking.
Why it matters: This target shows if the company can improve its cash flow. A positive cash flow is key for growth.
Confirms:Free Cash Flow reported between $35 million and $45 million for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Free Cash Flow remains negative or below $35 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A clear plan from the new CFO could signal a shift in company direction. Investors will look for signs of recovery or improvement.
Confirms:A plan has been announced. It includes cutting costs or ways to grow revenue.
Disproves:No plan is announced or the plan lacks clear goals for improvement.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change financial strategy and impact cash flow. This could affect investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Announcement of a new CFO with a strong track record in cash flow management.
Confirms the other:No new CFO appointed or a CFO with a weak financial background.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 11, 2026, Cannae Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter of 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report and is incorporated by reference herein. The Company also issued a letter to its shareholders announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the "Letter to Shareholders"). A copy of the Letter to Sha…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 23, 2026 , Cannae Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report and is incorporated by reference herein. The Company also issued a letter to its shareholders announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025 (the "Letter to Shareholders"). A copy of the Le…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. In light of limited borrowing capacity under the facility related to current trading levels of Alight, Inc. stock, and to eliminate approximately $0.4 million of annual commitment fees, on March 6, 2026, Cannae Funding A, LLC ("Cannae Funding A"), an indirect wholly owned special purpose subsidiary of Cannae Holdings, Inc. (the "Company"), prepaid in full all outstanding obligations under the Margin Loan Agreement, dated as of November 30, 2020…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 10, 2025, Cannae Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter of 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report and is incorporated by reference herein. The Company also issued a letter to its shareholders announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025 (the "Letter to Shareholders"). A copy of the Lett…