Reading YETI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track YETI free→Reading YETI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track YETI free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, YETI trades above typical levels, and its valuation is expensive, with peer multiples implying a price about 29% below where it trades. The read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $49.88. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $50 the market pays 20× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 18× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $39 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $41–$60. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 29% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.91x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to long-term interest rates, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.58 → $0.54 (-7.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 10 cut, 16 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 56% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$161.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$356.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,008.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
The signal label changed to indicate a mild favorable outlook. Risk fell, suggesting a decrease in overall risk. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, indicating ongoing challenges in the market environment. The valuation is described as expensive, reflecting that peer multiples imply a price about 29% below where it trades.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a top priority for Yeti. Strong growth signals better performance.
Confirms:Q1 revenue growth exceeds 4% year over year.
Disproves:Q1 revenue growth is below 4% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for YETI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 14, 2026, YETI Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its 2026 fiscal first quarter financial results. The press release is being furnished with this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$41.00 – $60.00 (median $50.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-05-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Leisure Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
YETI Yeti Holdings | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | full | moderate |
HAS Hasbro | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GOLF Acushnet Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BC Brunswick | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MAT Mattel | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | elevated |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Yeti aims to increase its revenue by raising the lower end of its 2026 sales growth outlook.
Yeti is focused on enhancing its operating income through strategic initiatives.
Yeti aims to improve its cash flow from operations to support growth and investment.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops, it may signal broader challenges. This could affect Yeti's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: A drop below 5% would signal a slowdown in revenue growth. This could hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Enhancing cash flow is important for Yeti's growth plans. It affects future investments.
Confirms one read:Cash flow from operations has increased a lot since last quarter.
Confirms the other:Cash flow from operations is lower or the same as last quarter.
Why it matters: Better margins show YETI is cutting costs and making more money.
Confirms:Operating income margin goes above 7% in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income margin falls below 3.3% in Q2.
Why it matters: Changes to the share buyback plan can show management's trust in the company's value.
Confirms:Management announces more share buybacks beyond the $500 million plan.
Disproves:Management stops or cuts the share buyback plan.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On February 19, 2026, YETI Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) announced the appointment of Scott Bomar as the Company’s Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, effective February 23, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). Mr. Bomar will also serve as the Company’s principal accounting officer. Mr. Bomar, age 54, joins YETI from The Home Depo…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 19, 2026, YETI Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its 2025 fiscal fourth quarter and full year financial results. The press release is being furnished with this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.