Reading MBUU? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MBUU free→Reading MBUU? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MBUU free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRecreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment hinges on whether MBUU can maintain its earnings momentum in the face of potential sector trends. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $28.03. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $28 MBUU trades at 25× p/e — 1.6× the 15× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $25 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 12% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -67.69x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.83 → $0.77 (-7.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 3 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 45% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$171.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$442.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,937.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report will show if the company can improve its financial performance. Investors will look for signs of recovery or continued losses.
Confirms one read:Q3 earnings show revenue growth turning positive year over year.
Confirms the other:Q3 earnings report shows continued revenue decline year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Maintain revenue guidance
Strong earnings indicate revenue guidance is on track.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026 , Malibu Boats, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for its third quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is being furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated into this Item by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Leisure Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MBUU Malibu Boats, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | full | elevated |
HAS Hasbro | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GOLF Acushnet Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BC Brunswick | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MAT Mattel | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Integrate Saxdor Yachts to enhance product offerings and market reach.
Maintain full-year fiscal 2026 net sales guidance of $880 million to $886 million.
Maintain adjusted EBITDA margin guidance of 8%-9% for fiscal 2026.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. On the Closing Date, the Company consummated the Transaction pursuant to the Purchase Agreement. The information with respect to the Transaction contained in
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 2, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), Malibu Boats, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with Saxdor Yachts Oy, a Finnish limited company (“Saxdor”), and the stockholders and option right holders of Saxdor (the “Sellers”). Pursuant to the Purchase Agreement, on such date, the Company purchased from the Sellers all right, title and interest to the issued and outstanding shares of the capital st…
The Company issued the Share Consideration to the Sellers in reliance on the exemption from registration under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), provided by Section 4(a)(2) and/or Regulation S thereof. The Company relied on this exemption from registration based on representations from each of the Sellers. The securities described herein may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from registration requirements. N…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026 , Malibu Boats, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for its second quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is being furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated into this Item by reference.