Reading JOUT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track JOUT free→Reading JOUT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track JOUT free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with JOUT trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening, as recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $45.88. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $46 JOUT trades at 1× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $45 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 3% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.90x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.03 → $0.68 (-34.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$146.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$319.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,630.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
Valuation changed. The valuation label moved from full to fair. Risk remained elevated. The sector backdrop was a headwind. Earnings quality is loss-making.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can indicate consumer spending trends. This affects Johnson Outdoors' sales outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows growth above 3% year over year.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows a decline or flat growth year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for JOUT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 8, 2026, Johnson Outdoors Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing results for the second fiscal quarter ended April 3, 2026 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Report. The information in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exc…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Leisure Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
JOUT Johnson Outdoors, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | fair | elevated |
HAS Hasbro | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GOLF Acushnet Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BC Brunswick | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MAT Mattel | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing operating income through cost management and revenue growth.
Drive revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Improve cash flow from operations through better working capital management.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Johnson Outdoors can improve its financial losses. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth turning positive year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows continued losses with no revenue growth.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers . On March 4, 2026, David W. Johnson, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Johnson Outdoors Inc. (the “ Company ”), informed the Company of his intention to retire later this year. The Company is commencing a succession process to identify and retain a successor for Mr. Johnson and the Company expects that Mr. Johnson will assist and suppor…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 6, 2026, Johnson Outdoors Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing results for the first fiscal quarter ended January 2, 2026 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Report. The information in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (th…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On December 12, 2025, Johnson Outdoors Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing results for the fiscal year ended October 3, 2025 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Report. The information in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Excha…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 1, 2025, Johnson Outdoors Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing results for the third fiscal quarter ended June 27, 2025 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Report. The information in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “E…