Reading JAKK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track JAKK free→Reading JAKK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track JAKK free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, which may raise concerns. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, suggesting challenges ahead. Peer multiples imply a price about 17% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $21.94. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $22 JAKK trades at 15× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $26 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 16% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.27x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.36 → $-0.06 (-115.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$118.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$334.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,008.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
As of June 16, 2026, confidence changed to medium. Risk fell, indicating a decrease in the overall risk level. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, suggesting ongoing challenges in the market environment. The earnings quality is described as fragile, reflecting potential weaknesses in financial performance.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong retail sales may mean that consumer spending is getting better. This could help JAKK.
Confirms:Retail sales growth reported above 1% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales growth reported below 0% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for JAKK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, we issued a press release announcing our first quarter results for 2026. Following the issuance of the press release, on April 30, 2026 at 5:00 p.m. ET / 2:00 p.m. PT, we will host a teleconference and webcast for analysts, investors, media and others to discuss the results and other business topics. Such financial information included in the Exhibit attached hereto, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Leisure Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
JAKK JAKKS Pacific, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | fair | elevated |
HAS Hasbro | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GOLF Acushnet Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BC Brunswick | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MAT Mattel | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | fair | elevated |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to pay a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per common share.
Emphasize earnings performance as a key metric for executive bonuses.
Why it matters: A drop in GDP may mean it is harder for people to spend money.
Confirms:GDP reported as contracting more than -0.5% quarter over quarter.
Disproves:GDP reported as growing more than 0.5% quarter over quarter.
Other Events. On April 29, 2026, our Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per common share. The dividend will be payable on June 29, 2026 to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 29, 2026. A copy of such release is annexed hereto as Exhibit 10.1.
Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Employment agreements for Stephen G. Berman, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and for John L. Kimble, our Chief Financial Officer, provide, inter alia, that for fiscal year 2026, their respective Annual Performance Bonuses (as such terms are defined in their respective employment agreements) will depend on our achieving certain performa…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 19, 2026, we issued a press release announcing our fourth quarter and full-year results for 2025. Following the issuance of the press release, on February 19, 2026 at 5:00 p.m. ET / 2:00 p.m. PT, we will host a teleconference and webcast for analysts, investors, media and others to discuss the results and other business topics. Such financial information included in the Exhibit attached hereto, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes…
Other Events. On February 18, 2026, our Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per common share. The dividend will be payable on March 30, 2026 to shareholders of record at the close of business on February 27, 2026. A copy of such release is annexed hereto as Exhibit 10.1.