JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (JAKK)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-09
$23.85-2.41%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve EPS near $1.8 in FY25: EPS -0.18 vs 1.8.
JAKKS Pacific grows revenue about 6% a year as it expands in anime toys. It keeps paying a steady $0.25 quarterly dividend. The company has strong partnerships with top anime brands. Profit margins and earnings are expected to improve from recent losses.
Earnings guidance is soft and recent EPS missed expectations. Revenue growth may slow below 6%. The toy market faces headwinds and profit margins could shrink. Dividend stability may be at risk if earnings weaken.
The price is about 16% below our fair value near $27. Analysts expect about 6% revenue growth. Our view is cautious due to soft guidance and mixed earnings revisions.
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.25 in any quarter
Breaks if: EPS falls below $1.8 in FY25
No new partnership or product launch announcements for 12 months
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with some potential for recovery. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has been weak, but there are signs of improvement in earnings.
The market appears to price in a low level of fragility due to weak execution quality. There is an expectations gap, suggesting that investors may not fully appreciate the challenges ahead.
Fundamentals are likely to improve gradually, as management has shown commitment to enhancing earnings performance. However, recent results indicate that the company still faces significant hurdles.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to meet revenue targets and maintain dividend payments. Additionally, broader sector performance and inflation trends will play a critical role in shaping outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 5.9% next year
In the next 1 to 3 years, JAKK's performance will depend on its execution and external factors affecting the Consumer Discretionary sector. Not investment advice.