Reading LUCK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LUCK free→Reading LUCK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LUCK free→
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact LUCK's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $8.04 LUCK trades at 1× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $8.18 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $6.50–$12. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 4% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.64x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.04 → $-0.01 (-112.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 56% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$198.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$525.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,284.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
Valuation changed. The valuation label moved from full to fair. Risk fell. The sector backdrop shifted from headwind to neutral. Recent financial performance increased.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LUCK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
President and CFO — Bobby Lavan: Bobby Lavan was promoted to President while maintaining his role as CFO.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$6.50 – $12.00 (median $9.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-07
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LUCK LUCKY STRIKE ENTERTAINMENT CORPORATION | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | fair | elevated |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve revenue guidance of $1,250M to $1,260M for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $292.3M in 2026-Q1 to $342.2M in 2026-Q3, indicating progress towards the FY 2026 revenue guidance of $1,250M to $1,260M. The trajectory is delivering against the guidance.
“Total Revenue: $1,250M to $1,260M.”
“Total Revenue: $1,260M to $1,310M.”
“The Company is reaffirming fiscal year 2026 guidance.”
Management aims to achieve Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $345M to $350M for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. While specific EBITDA figures are not provided in the financials, the company has consistently adjusted its guidance, indicating a focus on achieving the target. The trajectory shows recurring focus, but limited substantive delivery so far.
“Adjusted EBITDA: $345M to $350M.”
Management is focused on improving net income performance over the quarters.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net income improved from a loss of $12.7M in 2026-Q2 to a gain of $16.9M in 2026-Q3, showing a positive trajectory in financial performance. This indicates progress in management's focus on improving net income.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its preliminary financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, which ended on March 29, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is being furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished with this Item 2.02 (including the preliminary financial results and related information included in Exhibit 99.1 referenced under
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 18, 2026, Lev Ekster notified Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (the “Company”) of his resignation from his position as President of the Company. The Company appointed Thomas Shannon, its Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, to replace Mr. Ekster as the President of the Company. Mr. Shannon will serve as Chairman, Chief Executive…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 4, 2026, Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its preliminary financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, which ended on December 28, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is being furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished with this Item 2.02 (including the preliminary financial results and related information included in Exhibit 99.1 refere…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 4, 2025, Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its preliminary financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, which ended on September 28, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is being furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished with this Item 2.02 (including the preliminary financial results and related information included in Exhibit 99.1 refere…
“Adjusted EBITDA: $375M to $415M.”
“Adjusted EBITDA: $375M to $415M.”
“Net income improved from a loss of $12.7M to a gain of $16.9M.”
“Net income was a loss of $12.7M.”
“Net income was a loss of $13.8M.”