Reading PTON? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PTON free→Reading PTON? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PTON free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. However, management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect performance compared with sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 25% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.72. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $5.80 PTON trades at 28× p/e — 1.8× the 15× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $5.95 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 3% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 17.83x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.14 → $0.12 (-9.9% / 30d). 3 raised, 7 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$196.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$588.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,878.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PTON yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of CFO On May 26, 2026, Peloton Interactive, Inc. (the “Company”) announced the appointment of Siddharth (“Sid”) Thacker as Chief Financial Officer (“CFO”) effective June 22, 2026. Saqib Baig will step down from his position as Interim CFO, effective June 22, 2026, and will remain Chief Accounting Officer. Mr. Thacker served as CFO of R…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Leisure Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PTON Peloton Interactive, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | full | elevated |
HAS Hasbro | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GOLF Acushnet Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BC Brunswick | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MAT Mattel | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | elevated |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Peloton aims to increase Free Cash Flow to $350 million, up from a previous target of $275 million.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free Cash Flow guidance increased from $250 million in 2026-Q1 to $350 million in 2026-Q3, reflecting a $100 million improvement. The trajectory shows delivering on increased cash flow targets.
“Free Cash Flow expected to be in the vicinity of $350 million...”
“Free Cash Flow minimum target of $275 million”
“Free Cash Flow minimum target of $250 million”
Peloton targets an Adjusted EBITDA range of $470 million to $480 million for FY26.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance increased from $425 million in 2026-Q1 to $470 million in 2026-Q3, showing a $45 million improvement. The trajectory indicates progress towards achieving higher EBITDA targets.
Peloton aims to maintain a gross margin of approximately 52.5% for FY26.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross Margin guidance adjusted from 52.0% in 2026-Q1 to 52.5% in 2026-Q3, reflecting a 0.5% improvement. The trajectory shows maintaining a stable margin despite slight adjustments.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026 , Peloton Interactive, Inc. (“Peloton” or the “Company”) will hold a conference call regarding its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. Peloton also issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. Peloton is making reference to non-GAAP financial information in both t…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. CCO Transition On March 17, 2026, the Company announced that Jen Cotter will transition from Chief Content Officer (“CCO”) of the Company to a non-executive, advisory role effective as of the close of business on March 31, 2026. The circumstances giving rise to Ms. Cotter’s transition are not the result of any disagreement with the Company on any s…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Interim CFO On March 11, 2026, Peloton Interactive, Inc. (the “Company”) announced the appointment of Saqib Baig, the Company’s Chief Accounting Officer, as interim Chief Financial Officer (“Interim CFO”) effective March 27, 2026. As previously disclosed, Liz Coddington will step down from her position as Chief Financial Officer, eff…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. CFO Departure On February 5, 2026, the Company announced that Liz Coddington will step down from her position as Chief Financial Officer (“CFO”), effective March 27, 2026, to pursue an external opportunity. Ms. Coddington’s departure is not the result of any disagreements or issues relating to financial disclosures or accounting matters. Ms. Coddin…
“Adjusted EBITDA outlook of $470 million to $480 million...”
“Adjusted EBITDA outlook of $450 million to $500 million”
“Adjusted EBITDA outlook of $425 million to $475 million”
“Total Gross Margin outlook of approximately 52.5%...”
“Total Gross Margin outlook of approximately 53.0%”
“Total Gross Margin outlook of approximately 52.0%”