Reading MCFT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MCFT free→
MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. (MCFT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRecreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$22.93+0.31%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, indicating that cash backs up reported profits. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect performance. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. The analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Recreational Vehicles
- Market cap
- $562.44M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2015-05-01
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-26
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $22.93. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$22.59consensus
Range $17.64 – $23.62
vs price: +2% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$6.37consensus
Range $5.82 – $6.93
vs price: +260% above
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $23 MCFT trades at 16× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median. Our $23 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
16.1x
peer 15.4x · own history —
Premium
1.0x peer
Growth the price needs
1%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$22.67
range $17.66 – $23.71
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fair12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 1% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
16.1xP/E · peer median 15.3x
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
35th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 5.06x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
89th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +8.7% / 30d, n=2for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.59 → $0.64 (+8.7% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 14% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strongProvisional
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 28.6% avg surprise
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$151.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$412.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,769.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for Q2 earnings results on August 26
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how healthy MasterCraft's finances are and its growth path.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Earnings are better than expected, showing strong performance.
Confirms the other:Earnings are worse than expected, raising worries about growth.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MCFT yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Downside triggers
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-125d agoItem 2.01
thereof the completion of the acquisition of Marine Products Corporation (“Marine Products”) pursuant to the Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated as of February 5, 2026 (the “Merger Agreement”). We are amending the Initial 8-K to include the historical financial statements of Marine Products and our unaudited pro forma condensed combined financial information giving effect to the acquisition. The pro forma financial information included in this report has been presented for informational purpo…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.