MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. (MCFT)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$19.70-2.91%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	164.74M
EPS	—	0.543
Annual ending 2027-06-30
Revenue	—	635.85M
EPS	—	2.054
Annual ending 2028-06-30
Revenue	—	636.25M
EPS	—	2.225

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete and integrate Marine Products acquisition	A supporting condition in MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Acquisition fully integrated by end of 2026.	Intact	Acquisition integration delays or fails in 2026	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 quarters including 2026-Q1 through 2026-Q2. The acquisition of Marine Products was completed on May 15, 2026, contributing $33.3 million incremental net sales in 2026-Q4. This milestone was achieved as planned and management has consistently emphasized this strategic growth priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS at least $1.65 in Q2 2026	A primary condition in MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.65 per share.	Broken	EPS falls below $1.50 in Q2 2026	Diluted EPS: $-0.35 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.65 per share. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Source published Sep 10, 2026-0.35 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve at least $312 million revenue in fiscal 2026	MasterCraft aims for $312 million revenue in fiscal 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $290 million in FY26	Revenue: $129.936M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $312 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 10, 2026129,936,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 quarters including 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2. Actual revenue grew from $284.2 million in fiscal 2025 to $348.9 million in fiscal 2026, exceeding the $312 million guidance. Management raised revenue guidance during this period, indicating delivery and growth beyond initial expectations. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	6
2026-06-01	1	6
2026-07-01	1	6
2026-08-01	1	6
2026-09-01	1	6
2026-10-01	1	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 23 · prior Jul 6

$28.00 → $22.00-21.4%

$0$15.40$30.80

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Complete and integrate Marine Products acquisitionQualitative condition
EPS at least $1.65 in Q2 2026Published status: Broken
Achieve at least $312 million revenue in fiscal 2026Revenue: $129.936M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-30.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MCFT is a cyclical marine-products business with a growth angle from its completed acquisition of Marine Products Corporation. The long-term thesis is on watch: fiscal 2026 revenue exceeded management’s stated goal, while recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.

What's priced into MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc.

The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure describes MCFT as cheap versus peers, while another shows a 0.73 premium to peers and the overall value assessment is expensive. The expectations gap is negative at -0.56, and the priced-in assessment says the valuation is justified, with low fragility rather than a full expensive, weak, and turbulent combination.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term, recent results include an earnings beat, and company momentum improved by 30.8 points. Management delivered fiscal 2026 revenue of $348.9 million against a stated $312 million goal, while the acquisition added $33.3 million in incremental sales in fiscal 2026’s fourth quarter. Performance is still weak relative to the industry cohort, and a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; the evidence puts near-term miss risk in the quiet tier.

What MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on whether the acquired business supports continued growth and whether management sustains execution after exceeding its revenue goal. Near-term sector signals also matter: continued strong results and guidance from BC, THO, and PII would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, MCFT combines evidence of improving momentum and successful revenue execution with weak relative performance, elevated risk, and an expensive overall value assessment. The thesis remains on watch and hinges on sustained execution, acquisition contribution, and sector conditions. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	164.74M
EPS	—	0.543
Annual ending 2027-06-30
Revenue	—	635.85M
EPS	—	2.054
Annual ending 2028-06-30
Revenue	—	636.25M
EPS	—	2.225

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings