Reading THO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track THO free→Reading THO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track THO free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRecreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. This assessment hinges on whether THO can reverse course and raise guidance next quarter, as well as the performance of sector bellwethers like BC, PII, and PATK. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $75.06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $76 THO trades at 15× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $77 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $78–$110. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 1% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.28x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.48 → $0.96 (-35.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 11 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 28% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 21.5% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$152.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$414.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,966.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show serious problems in how consumers feel and buy.
Confirms:Q3 North American Towable net sales decline worse than 24.6% year over year.
Disproves:North American Towable net sales decline less than 24.6% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Board changes can enhance strategic direction.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events On June 16, 2026, the Board of Directors of THOR Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) declared a regular cash dividend of $0.52 per share of common stock, payable on July 15, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on July 1, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release announcing the dividend is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$78.00 – $110.00 (median $96.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-04
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Leisure Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
THO Thor Industries | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HAS Hasbro | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GOLF Acushnet Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BC Brunswick | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MAT Mattel | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | elevated |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Advance the strategic realignment of North American RV operations to optimize efficiency and enhance collaboration.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The strategic realignment of North American RV operations is ongoing, with management team assessments largely complete. Despite macroeconomic challenges, the company remains committed to executing this strategy to optimize efficiency and enhance collaboration. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
“CEO: 'Our strategic realignment of North American RV operations is well under way.'”
“CEO: 'Strategic evolution of North American RV operating model announced.'”
“CEO: 'Strategic realignment of North American RV operations announced.'”
Continue investing in product innovation to maintain competitive advantages and meet consumer demands.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company continues to emphasize product innovation across all brands to maintain competitive advantages. Despite macroeconomic challenges, the focus on innovation remains a priority. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
“CEO: 'Continuing to invest in product innovation across all of our brands.'”
Maintain a disciplined capital allocation framework to ensure financial flexibility and shareholder returns.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has maintained a disciplined capital allocation framework, returning $50.5 million in share repurchases and $27.1 million in dividend payments during the quarter. This approach has preserved balance sheet strength amidst challenging conditions. Delivering on stated capital allocation discipline.
“CFO: 'Disciplined capital allocation framework allowed us to maintain our balance sheet focus.'”
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how Thor is doing financially. It will also show its place in the market.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows revenue and profit margins are better than expected.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows revenue and profit margins are lower than expected.
Why it matters: Better consumer confidence could lead to higher retail sales and RV demand.
Confirms:Consumer Confidence Index shows a big rise after the June 10 report.
Disproves:Consumer Confidence Index shows a big drop after the June 10 report.
Why it matters: Clear signs would show that management's plan is solving current problems.
Confirms:Management reports clear gains in net sales or margins from the changes.
Disproves:No gains in net sales or margins despite the changes.
Why it matters: High unemployment claims can show economic problems. This can affect how much people spend.
Confirms:Unemployment claims rise a lot compared to previous weeks.
Disproves:Unemployment claims go down or stay the same. This shows a stronger job market.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential shift in the consumer discretionary sector. This could impact Thor Industries' performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median for the sector, indicating a slowdown.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median, suggesting continued strength in the sector.
Why it matters: Stronger growth would show that demand is holding up despite economic problems.
Confirms:Q3 North American Motorized net sales grew more than 7.7% from last year.
Disproves:North American Motorized net sales growth is below 7.7% from last year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On June 3, 2026, THOR Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing certain financial results for the third quarter ended April 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The Company also posted an updated investor slide presentation and a list of investor questions and answers to the “Investors” section of its website. A copy of the Company’s sli…
Other Events On March 24, 2026, the Board of Directors of THOR Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) declared a regular cash dividend of $0.52 per share of common stock, payable on April 20, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on April 6, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release announcing the dividend is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 3, 2026, THOR Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing certain financial results for the second quarter ended January 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The Company also posted an updated investor slide presentation and a list of investor questions and answers to the “Investors” section of its website. A copy of the Company’s…
Other Events. On October 8, 2025, the Board of Directors of THOR Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) declared a regular cash dividend of $0.52 per share of common stock, payable on November 6, 2025, to shareholders of record at the close of business on October 23, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release announcing the dividend is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.
“CEO: 'Our innovation pipeline is robust.'”
“CEO: 'Invest in product innovation across all brands.'”
“CFO: 'Disciplined capital allocation framework and commitment to financial flexibility.'”
“CFO: 'Maintain disciplined capital allocation framework.'”