Malibu Boats, Inc. (MBUU)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$22.03-2.78%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Malibu Boats, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.04 → 2.98 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	248.71M
EPS	—	0.22
Annual ending 2027-06-30
Revenue	—	1.11B
EPS	—	2.46
Annual ending 2028-06-30
Revenue	—	1.2B
EPS	—	2.98

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve adjusted EBITDA margin near 8%-9%	The company targets a profit margin near 8% to 9%.	Improving	Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 7% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain fiscal 2026 revenue near $880M	A primary condition in Malibu Boats, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $880 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $830 million in FY26	Revenue: $295.537M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $880 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 2026295,537,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Full-year fiscal 2026 net sales guidance remains approximately $880 million to $886 million. Revenue increased from $188.6 million in 2026-Q2 to $295.5 million in 2026-Q4, reflecting seasonal and acquisition effects. The trajectory is delivering consistent revenue guidance amid market challenges. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Successful integration of Saxdor Yachts	Recent earnings beats show progress integrating Saxdor Yachts.	Intact	Integration progress score falls below 50%	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$2.98

Unavailable → $2.98 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$1.20B

Unavailable → $1.20B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	$3.06	$1,194,129,143	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$3.06	$1,194,129,143	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$3.06	$1,194,129,143	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$3.06	$1,194,129,143	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$3.04	$1,195,113,000	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$3.04	$1,195,113,000	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$3.04	$1,195,113,000	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$3.04	$1,195,113,000	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$3.04	$1,195,113,000	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$3.04	$1,195,113,000	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$3.04	$1,195,113,000	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$3.04	$1,198,500,444	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$3.04	$1,198,500,444	7 / 7
2026-09-13	$3.04	$1,198,500,444	7 / 7
2026-09-14	$3.04	$1,198,500,444	7 / 8
2026-09-15	$3.04	$1,198,500,444	7 / 8
2026-09-16	$3.04	$1,198,500,444	7 / 8
2026-09-17	$3.04	$1,198,500,444	7 / 8
2026-09-18	$3.04	$1,198,500,444	7 / 8
2026-09-19	$3.04	$1,198,500,444	7 / 8
2026-09-20	$3.04	$1,198,500,444	7 / 8
2026-09-21	$3.04	$1,198,500,444	7 / 8
2026-09-22	$3.04	$1,198,500,444	7 / 8
2026-09-23	$3.04	$1,198,500,444	7 / 8
2026-09-24	$3.04	$1,198,500,444	7 / 8
2026-09-25	$3.04	$1,198,500,444	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$3.04	$1,198,500,444	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$3.04	$1,198,500,444	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$3.04	$1,198,500,444	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$2.99	$1,198,500,444	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$2.99	$1,198,500,444	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$2.99	$1,198,500,444	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$2.99	$1,198,500,444	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$2.99	$1,198,500,444	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$2.98	$1,201,850,500	7 / 7
2026-10-05	$2.98	$1,201,850,500	7 / 7
2026-10-06	$2.98	$1,201,850,500	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$2.98	$1,201,850,500	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$2.98	$1,201,850,500	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$2.98	$1,201,846,250	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$2.98	$1,201,846,250	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$2.98	$1,201,846,250	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$2.98	$1,201,846,250	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$2.98	$1,201,846,250	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$2.98	$1,201,846,250	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$2.98	$1,201,846,250	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$2.98	$1,201,846,250	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$2.98	$1,201,846,250	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$2.98	$1,201,846,250	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$2.98	$1,201,846,250	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$2.98	$1,201,846,250	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$2.98	$1,201,846,250	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$2.98	$1,201,846,250	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$2.98	$1,201,846,250	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$2.98	$1,201,846,250	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	6
2026-06-01	5	6
2026-07-01	5	6
2026-08-01	5	6
2026-09-01	6	6
2026-10-01	5	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 23 · prior Jul 6

$34.00 → $26.00-23.5%

$0$18.70$37.40

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted EBITDA margin near 8%-9%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain fiscal 2026 revenue near $880MRevenue: $295.537M
Successful integration of Saxdor YachtsDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-37.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Malibu Boats, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an acquisition-led, cyclical business setup with elevated risk, rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: Saxdor integration is on track, but earnings quality is loss-making and recent financial performance trails its industry cohort.

What's priced into Malibu Boats, Inc.

The valuation evidence is mixed: MBUU is described as expensive overall, while one comparison says it is cheap versus peers. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be demanding; the priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, fiscal 2026 revenue guidance remains approximately $880 million to $886 million, and Saxdor contributed $23.1 million in net sales and 66 units in the first quarter. Margin progress is less certain: adjusted EBITDA margin guidance is 8%-9%, while the year-to-date margin was 6.9%, with cost pressures and integration expenses. Recent earnings beats offer some support, but momentum fell and a guidance cut remains a risk.

What Malibu Boats, Inc. hinges on

Over the next year, the thesis hinges on Saxdor integration and whether MBUU can improve margins while maintaining its revenue guidance. Sector conditions also matter: continued strong results from BC, THO, and PII could support sector momentum, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative signal.