Yeti Holdings (YETI)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$42.79-2.82%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Yeti Holdings’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.35 → 3.36 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	624.61M
EPS	—	1.231
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.01B
EPS	$2.83–$2.89	2.978
Capital expenditure	$60M–$70M	—
Free cash flow	$200M–$225M	—
Revenue growth	7%–8%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.15B
EPS	—	3.359

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS near $2.83-$2.89 in 2026	Profit margins remain stable with EPS near $2.88 to $2.89.	Intact	EPS falls below $2.83 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.94 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.83 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 20260.94 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 075934ee-1fa2-4db5-a2bf-f5a3e589ff4c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow of $200M-$225M in 2026	Free cash flow stays solid around $200M to $225M.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $200M in FY26	Free cash flow: $48.09M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=200 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 202648,090,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve operating income from recent decline	A supporting condition in Yeti Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income stabilizes or improves above $12M quarterly.	Intact	Operating income declines further below $12M quarterly average	Operating income: $93.518M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income stabilizes or improves above $12M quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 202693,518,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 075934ee-1fa2-4db5-a2bf-f5a3e589ff4c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated this priority in 4 quarters including the 2026 Investor Day. Adjusted operating income margin improved from 14.6% in 2026-Q1 to 14.9% in 2026-Q2, after tariff-related margin pressure in 2025-Q4 where margin was 16.2% down from 19.9% prior year. The Project Upcycle initiative targets $100 million in productivity gains. The trajectory shows delivering margin improvement and cost discipline. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth of 7%-8% in 2026	A primary condition in Yeti Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 8.52% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 20268.516861 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 075934ee-1fa2-4db5-a2bf-f5a3e589ff4c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$3.36

$3.32 → $3.36 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$2.15B

$2.15B → $2.15B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.32	$2,153,611,638	11 / 14
2026-07-25	$3.32	$2,153,611,638	11 / 14
2026-07-26	$3.32	$2,153,626,014	11 / 14
2026-07-27	$3.32	$2,153,626,014	11 / 14
2026-07-28	$3.32	$2,153,626,014	11 / 14
2026-07-29	$3.32	$2,153,626,014	11 / 14
2026-07-30	$3.32	$2,153,626,014	11 / 14
2026-07-31	$3.32	$2,153,626,014	11 / 14
2026-08-01	$3.32	$2,153,626,014	11 / 14
2026-08-02	$3.32	$2,153,626,014	11 / 14
2026-08-03	$3.32	$2,153,626,014	11 / 14
2026-08-04	$3.32	$2,153,626,014	11 / 14
2026-08-05	$3.32	$2,153,626,014	11 / 14
2026-08-06	$3.32	$2,153,626,014	11 / 14
2026-08-08	$3.32	$2,153,626,014	11 / 14
2026-08-09	$3.32	$2,153,626,014	11 / 14
2026-08-10	$3.32	$2,153,626,014	11 / 14
2026-08-12	$3.32	$2,153,626,014	11 / 14
2026-08-13	$3.32	$2,153,626,014	11 / 14
2026-08-14	$3.32	$2,153,626,014	11 / 14
2026-08-15	$3.32	$2,153,626,014	11 / 14
2026-08-16	$3.32	$2,153,626,014	11 / 14
2026-08-17	$3.32	$2,153,626,014	11 / 14
2026-08-18	$3.32	$2,153,626,014	11 / 14
2026-08-19	$3.32	$2,153,626,014	11 / 14
2026-08-20	$3.37	$2,156,173,054	11 / 13
2026-08-21	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-08-22	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-08-23	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-08-24	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-08-25	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-08-26	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-08-27	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-08-28	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-08-29	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-08-30	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-08-31	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-09-01	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-09-02	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-09-03	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-09-04	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-09-05	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-09-06	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-09-07	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-09-08	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-09-09	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-09-10	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-09-11	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-09-12	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-09-13	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-09-14	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-09-15	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-09-16	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-09-17	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-09-18	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-09-19	$3.37	$2,156,937,079	11 / 13
2026-09-20	$3.35	$2,154,430,829	11 / 13
2026-09-21	$3.35	$2,154,430,829	11 / 13
2026-09-22	$3.35	$2,154,430,829	11 / 13
2026-09-23	$3.35	$2,154,430,829	11 / 13
2026-09-24	$3.35	$2,154,430,829	11 / 13
2026-09-25	$3.35	$2,154,430,829	11 / 13
2026-09-26	$3.35	$2,154,430,829	11 / 13
2026-09-27	$3.35	$2,154,430,829	11 / 13
2026-09-28	$3.35	$2,154,430,829	11 / 13
2026-09-29	$3.35	$2,154,787,079	11 / 13
2026-09-30	$3.35	$2,154,787,079	11 / 13
2026-10-01	$3.35	$2,154,787,079	11 / 13
2026-10-02	$3.35	$2,154,787,079	11 / 13
2026-10-03	$3.35	$2,154,787,079	11 / 13
2026-10-04	$3.35	$2,154,787,079	11 / 13
2026-10-05	$3.35	$2,154,787,079	11 / 13
2026-10-06	$3.35	$2,154,787,079	11 / 13
2026-10-07	$3.35	$2,154,787,079	11 / 13
2026-10-08	$3.35	$2,154,787,079	11 / 13
2026-10-09	$3.35	$2,154,787,079	11 / 13
2026-10-10	$3.35	$2,154,787,079	11 / 13
2026-10-11	$3.35	$2,154,787,079	11 / 13
2026-10-12	$3.35	$2,154,787,079	11 / 13
2026-10-13	$3.35	$2,154,787,079	11 / 13
2026-10-14	$3.36	$2,154,458,427	12 / 14
2026-10-15	$3.36	$2,154,458,427	12 / 14
2026-10-16	$3.36	$2,154,093,893	12 / 14
2026-10-17	$3.36	$2,154,093,893	12 / 14
2026-10-18	$3.36	$2,154,093,893	12 / 14
2026-10-19	$3.36	$2,154,093,893	12 / 14
2026-10-20	$3.36	$2,154,093,893	12 / 14
2026-10-21	$3.36	$2,154,111,540	12 / 14
2026-10-22	$3.36	$2,154,111,540	12 / 14
2026-10-23	$3.36	$2,154,111,540	12 / 14
2026-10-24	$3.36	$2,154,111,540	12 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	7
2026-06-01	9	7
2026-07-01	10	7
2026-08-01	10	6
2026-09-01	11	6
2026-10-01	12	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 15

$44.00New observation · no comparable prior

Canaccord GenuitySep 28 · prior Sep 22

$45.00 → $46.00+2.2%

$0$25.30$50.60

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS near $2.83-$2.89 in 2026Diluted EPS: $0.94 per share
Free cash flow of $200M-$225M in 2026Free cash flow: $48.09M
Improve operating income from recent declineOperating income: $93.518M
Revenue growth of 7%-8% in 2026Revenue growth: 8.52%

Next proof point

Nov 12, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-30.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Yeti Holdings outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

YETI is a growth-oriented consumer business with a multi-year thesis built on international expansion, stronger profitability, and cash generation. The thesis is intact, but its signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable.

What's priced into Yeti Holdings

Valuation is roughly in line with peers, and the priced-in assessment is described as justified rather than fragile. Expectations are somewhat ahead of the model’s view, so the setup depends on continued execution rather than a large gap between expectations and results.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results have been strong, with earnings beats in May and August 2026, and management reaffirmed guidance as of August 13. International sales are growing, adjusted operating margin improved in the first half of 2026, and management says productivity and cash-flow priorities are on track. Earnings quality is still fragile, and industry peers have recently missed, so execution and the next guidance update warrant attention.

What Yeti Holdings hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining international growth, improving margins, and delivering its free-cash-flow guidance. A guidance cut would weaken the setup, while continued strength from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support.