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Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$223.28-0.12%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, suggesting challenges in the market. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts from WSM and the performance of sector bellwethers like ULTA and DKS. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- Market cap
- $26.32B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1995-04-28
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $223.28. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$168.64consensus
Range $159.34 – $176.68
vs price: +32% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$212.46consensus
Range $168.44 – $321.53
vs price: +5% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $223 WSM trades at 25× p/e — 1.3× the 19× p/e peer median, and above its own 15× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $169 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $185–$230. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
25.0x
peer 18.5x · own history 14.7x
Premium
1.3x peer
1.7x its own history
Growth the price needs
32%
our forecast -3%
Our fair value
$168.64
range $161.61 – $176.68
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 32% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
80th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.24x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
30th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral7 PT revisions / 30d, avg 6.7% above currentfor period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.03 → $2.04 (+0.5% / 30d). 5 raised, 5 cut, 14 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 42% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 6.7% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$148.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$308.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,329.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
Valuation changed. It rose from "expensive" to "full." Risk remained moderate. Earnings quality stayed fragile. Management was stable. The sector backdrop was a headwind.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 22d
Watch for Q2 comparable brand revenue growth below 2.0%
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in sales and could impact future guidance.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 brand revenue growth was below 2.0%.
Disproves:Q2 brand revenue growth was above 2.0%.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WSM yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like ULTA, DKS, and BBY keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting WSM and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If WSM raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-21), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If WSM cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-21), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like ULTA, DKS, and BBY start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping WSM and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits WSM and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2127d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 21, 2026, Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for its first quarter ended May 3, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1. The attached exhibit is provided under
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.