Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM)

Q: What's priced into Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) stock?

The market currently prices WSM at an expensive valuation compared to its peers, with a significant premium. This premium reflects expectations of continued strong performance, but also indicates a potential fragility due to high valuation and execution quality concerns.

Q: What does the Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) outlook hinge on?

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and navigate sector challenges. Key factors include inflation trends and the performance of major competitors in the Consumer Discretionary sector.

NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-15

$250.16-0.74%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Williams-Sonoma, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.51 → 10.51 EPS · FY ending Feb 1, 2028 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Quarterly cash dividend increased by 15% in fiscal 2026	The company raised its quarterly dividend by 15%.	Intact	Dividend growth stalls or reverses in FY26	Dividend per share: $0.76 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 15% increase in quarterly dividend. Target and observation units differ. Source published Aug 28, 20260.76 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 2, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 141ad182-d433-46a9-a56c-4a1f2418f788. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 4 quarters. The quarterly dividend was increased by 15% in March 2026 from $0.66 to $0.76 per share. Dividend payments rose from $155.9M in 2025-Q3 to $175.4M in 2026-Q2, reflecting delivery on the dividend increase commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Operating margin between 17.5% and 18.1% for fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Williams-Sonoma, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=17.5% and <=18.1%.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 17.5% in FY26	Operating margin: 22.9% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=17.5% and <=18.1%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 28, 202622.900543 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 2, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 141ad182-d433-46a9-a56c-4a1f2418f788. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth between 2.7% and 6.7% for fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Williams-Sonoma, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=2.7% and <=6.7% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 2.7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 6.7% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.7% and <=6.7% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 28, 20266.696411 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 2, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 141ad182-d433-46a9-a56c-4a1f2418f788. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-02-01 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$10.51

$10.25 → $10.51 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$8.71B

$8.56B → $8.71B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$10.25	$8,560,174,505	13 / 14
2026-07-25	$10.25	$8,560,174,505	13 / 14
2026-07-26	$10.25	$8,560,174,505	13 / 14
2026-07-27	$10.25	$8,560,174,505	13 / 14
2026-07-28	$10.25	$8,560,174,505	13 / 14
2026-07-29	$10.25	$8,560,174,505	13 / 14
2026-07-30	$10.25	$8,560,174,505	13 / 14
2026-07-31	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-01	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-02	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-03	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-04	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-05	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-06	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-08	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-09	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-10	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-12	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-13	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-14	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-15	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-16	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-17	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-18	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-19	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-20	$10.31	$8,573,027,179	14 / 15
2026-08-21	$10.31	$8,573,027,179	14 / 15
2026-08-22	$10.31	$8,573,027,179	14 / 15
2026-08-23	$10.31	$8,573,027,179	14 / 15
2026-08-24	$10.31	$8,573,027,179	14 / 15
2026-08-25	$10.32	$8,577,017,184	14 / 15
2026-08-26	$10.32	$8,577,017,184	14 / 15
2026-08-27	$10.32	$8,577,017,184	14 / 15
2026-08-28	$10.32	$8,577,017,184	14 / 15
2026-08-29	$10.50	$8,707,591,061	13 / 15
2026-08-30	$10.50	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-08-31	$10.50	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-01	$10.50	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-02	$10.50	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-03	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-04	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-05	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-06	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-07	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-08	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-09	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-10	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-11	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-12	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-13	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-14	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-15	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-16	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-17	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-18	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-19	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-20	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-21	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-22	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-23	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-24	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-25	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-26	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-27	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-28	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-29	$10.51	$8,707,590,745	12 / 16
2026-09-30	$10.51	$8,707,590,745	12 / 16
2026-10-01	$10.51	$8,707,590,745	12 / 16
2026-10-02	$10.51	$8,707,590,745	12 / 16
2026-10-03	$10.51	$8,707,590,745	12 / 16
2026-10-04	$10.51	$8,707,606,534	12 / 16
2026-10-05	$10.51	$8,707,606,534	12 / 16
2026-10-06	$10.51	$8,707,606,534	12 / 16
2026-10-07	$10.51	$8,707,606,534	12 / 16
2026-10-08	$10.51	$8,707,606,534	12 / 16
2026-10-09	$10.51	$8,707,606,534	12 / 16
2026-10-10	$10.51	$8,707,606,534	12 / 16
2026-10-11	$10.51	$8,707,606,534	12 / 16
2026-10-12	$10.51	$8,707,606,534	12 / 16
2026-10-13	$10.51	$8,707,606,534	12 / 16
2026-10-14	$10.51	$8,707,606,534	12 / 16
2026-10-15	$10.51	$8,707,606,534	12 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	12	1
2026-06-01	10	12	2
2026-07-01	11	11	1
2026-08-01	11	11	1
2026-09-01	11	11	2
2026-10-01	11	11	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Quarterly cash dividend increased by 15% in fiscal 2026Dividend per share: $0.76 per share
Operating margin between 17.5% and 18.1% for fiscal 2026Operating margin: 22.9%
Revenue growth between 2.7% and 6.7% for fiscal 2026Revenue growth: 6.7%

Next proof point

Nov 18, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Williams-Sonoma, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance despite a mixed outlook.

What's priced into Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

The market currently prices WSM at an expensive valuation compared to its peers, with a significant premium. This premium reflects expectations of continued strong performance, but also indicates a potential fragility due to high valuation and execution quality concerns.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve its revenue growth and operating margin targets for fiscal 2026. However, there is a moderate risk of missing expectations, especially given the company's recent history of misses.

What Williams-Sonoma, Inc. hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and navigate sector challenges. Key factors include inflation trends and the performance of major competitors in the Consumer Discretionary sector.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, WSM's performance will depend on its execution against targets and external economic factors. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-02-01 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$10.51

$10.25 → $10.51 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$8.71B

$8.56B → $8.71B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$10.25	$8,560,174,505	13 / 14
2026-07-25	$10.25	$8,560,174,505	13 / 14
2026-07-26	$10.25	$8,560,174,505	13 / 14
2026-07-27	$10.25	$8,560,174,505	13 / 14
2026-07-28	$10.25	$8,560,174,505	13 / 14
2026-07-29	$10.25	$8,560,174,505	13 / 14
2026-07-30	$10.25	$8,560,174,505	13 / 14
2026-07-31	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-01	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-02	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-03	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-04	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-05	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-06	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-08	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-09	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-10	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-12	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-13	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-14	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-15	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-16	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-17	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-18	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-19	$10.24	$8,554,313,598	14 / 15
2026-08-20	$10.31	$8,573,027,179	14 / 15
2026-08-21	$10.31	$8,573,027,179	14 / 15
2026-08-22	$10.31	$8,573,027,179	14 / 15
2026-08-23	$10.31	$8,573,027,179	14 / 15
2026-08-24	$10.31	$8,573,027,179	14 / 15
2026-08-25	$10.32	$8,577,017,184	14 / 15
2026-08-26	$10.32	$8,577,017,184	14 / 15
2026-08-27	$10.32	$8,577,017,184	14 / 15
2026-08-28	$10.32	$8,577,017,184	14 / 15
2026-08-29	$10.50	$8,707,591,061	13 / 15
2026-08-30	$10.50	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-08-31	$10.50	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-01	$10.50	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-02	$10.50	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-03	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-04	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-05	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-06	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-07	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-08	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-09	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-10	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-11	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-12	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-13	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-14	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-15	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-16	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-17	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-18	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-19	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-20	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-21	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-22	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-23	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-24	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-25	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-26	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-27	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-28	$10.51	$8,707,591,061	12 / 16
2026-09-29	$10.51	$8,707,590,745	12 / 16
2026-09-30	$10.51	$8,707,590,745	12 / 16
2026-10-01	$10.51	$8,707,590,745	12 / 16
2026-10-02	$10.51	$8,707,590,745	12 / 16
2026-10-03	$10.51	$8,707,590,745	12 / 16
2026-10-04	$10.51	$8,707,606,534	12 / 16
2026-10-05	$10.51	$8,707,606,534	12 / 16
2026-10-06	$10.51	$8,707,606,534	12 / 16
2026-10-07	$10.51	$8,707,606,534	12 / 16
2026-10-08	$10.51	$8,707,606,534	12 / 16
2026-10-09	$10.51	$8,707,606,534	12 / 16
2026-10-10	$10.51	$8,707,606,534	12 / 16
2026-10-11	$10.51	$8,707,606,534	12 / 16
2026-10-12	$10.51	$8,707,606,534	12 / 16
2026-10-13	$10.51	$8,707,606,534	12 / 16
2026-10-14	$10.51	$8,707,606,534	12 / 16
2026-10-15	$10.51	$8,707,606,534	12 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings