Reading VENU? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VENU free→Reading VENU? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VENU free→AMEXConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 501% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact VENU's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.71, VENU's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 6× p/s (6.0× the 1× p/s peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $0.45 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 502% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.21x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
27 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.24 → $-0.29 (-20.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$317.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$921.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,506.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This agreement is meant to enhance liquidity. Its impact on financials is still unclear.
Confirms:The company raises at least $100 million from the ATM Sales Agreement.
Disproves:The company fails to raise significant funds from the ATM Sales Agreement.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VENU yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 12, 2026, Venu Holding Corporation (the “Company”) entered into an ATM Sales Agreement (the “Sales Agreement”) with ThinkEquity LLC (the “Agent”) pursuant to which the Agent agreed to act as the Company’s sole sales agent with respect to the offer and sale from time-to-time of shares of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.001 per share, having an aggregate gross sales price of up to $250 million (the “Shares”). Under the Sales Agreement…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Restaurants.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VENU Venu Holding Corp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | expensive | high |
MCD McDonald's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | full | moderate |
SBUX Starbucks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
YUM Yum! Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Restructure the contractual arrangements governing the operations and lease of the Ford Amphitheater with AEG Presents.
Enter into an ATM Sales Agreement with ThinkEquity LLC for up to $250 million in common stock sales.
Terminate a Material Definitive Agreement as part of M&A activity.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows how much consumers spend. This impacts Venu's business.
Confirms one read:Retail sales data shows an increase in consumer spending month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales data shows a decrease in consumer spending month over month.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Purchase and Sale Agreement On June 5, 2026 (the “ Closing Date ”), Notes CS I, DST (the “ Subsidiary ”), a Delaware statutory trust and a controlled subsidiary of Venu Holding Corporation (the “ Company ”), entered into a Purchase and Sale Agreement dated June 5, 2026 (the “ PSA ”) with O’Neil Roth Ford, LLC, a Colorado limited liability company (“ ORF ”). Pursuant to the PSA, on the Closing Date, the Subsidiary sold approximately 9.5 acres of land…
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The Warrants described in
Other Events. In May 2026, the form of the Company’s relationship with AEG Presents — Rocky Mountains, LLC, the operator of the Ford Amphitheater (“ AEG Presents ”), and the contractual arrangements governing the operations and lease of the Ford Amphitheater were restructured (the “ Restructuring ”) by AEG Presents and certain of the Company’s wholly-owned subsidiaries, including SunsetAmp, Sunset Operations LLC (“ SunsetOps ”), and Notes Live Foundation, a non-profit organization operating u…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. The information set forth in