Reading UPBD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UPBD free→Reading UPBD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UPBD free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 68% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from UPBD and the performance of sector bellwether DUOL, as both could significantly impact the stock. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $18.72. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $19 UPBD trades at 5× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $58 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 68% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.91x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.03 → $1.05 (+1.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 2 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$172.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$401.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,016.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If the company meets or beats this guidance, it shows growth. It also shows they can keep making money even with market problems.
Confirms:Q2 revenue was $1.1 billion or more.
Disproves:Q2 revenue was less than $1.1 billion.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for UPBD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 2, 2026, Upbound Group, Inc. (the “Company”) held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”). At the Annual Meeting, the Company’s stockholders approved the Upbound Group, Inc. 2026 Long-Term Incentive Plan (the “2026 LTIP”), in which directors, officers (including its named executive officers), employees, consultants an…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Discretionary (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UPBD Upbound Group, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
DKS Dick's Sporting Goods | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | full | moderate |
SN SharkNinja | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
H Hyatt | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Commitment to maintaining a consistent dividend payout to shareholders.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows a commitment to how money is spent, even with challenges.
Confirms:The company announces a dividend payout of $0.39 per share for Q2.
Disproves:The company cuts the dividend payout below $0.39 per share.
Why it matters: A lower lease charge-off rate means better credit quality. It also shows the company is running well.
Confirms:Lease charge-off rate reported below 8.8%.
Disproves:Lease charge-off rate reported above 9.5%.
Why it matters: Keeping this growth rate means strong demand for Brigit's services. It also helps overall revenue growth.
Confirms:Brigit's revenue grew more than 40% from last year.
Disproves:Brigit's revenue grew less than 30% from last year.
Why it matters: The dividend payout shows how well Upbound is managing its capital. Changes can affect investor trust.
Confirms one read:Dividend payout remains stable or increases in the Q2 earnings report.
Confirms the other:Dividend payout is cut or suspended in the Q2 earnings report.
Why it matters: This shows if Upbound is improving its revenue growth after a slow period.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 4% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: New leaders can change company plans. This can impact how well the company does.
Confirms:New leaders have strong experience and a clear plan.
Disproves:More leaders leaving or unclear plans from new leaders.
Why it matters: Stable or better same store sales show good management and demand. It also shows Rent-A-Center is doing well.
Confirms:Rent-A-Center's same store sales grew more than 0.4% from last year.
Disproves:Rent-A-Center's same store sales grew less than 0.4% from last year.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows better cost management and efficiency. This is a key goal.
Confirms:Operating income grew by more than 5% compared to last year.
Disproves:Operating income growth is reported at or below 5% year over year.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 15, 2026, Mr. Bryan Pechersky, Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary of Upbound Group, Inc. (the “Company”), notified the Company of his resignation from the Company, effective on June 5, 2026. Mr. Pechersky’s resignation was not a result of any disagreement with the Company regarding the Company’s operations, pol…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Upbound Group, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. Copies of the press release and earnings release are attached hereto as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this paragraph, as well as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 referenced herein, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Secur…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 19, 2026, Upbound Group, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. Copies of the press release and earnings release are attached hereto as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this paragraph, as well as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 referenced herein, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of S…