Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-29
$20.70+3.60%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put UPBD beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue growth is slowing — up about 3% over the past year and decelerating.
View GrowthManagement screens strong on earnings delivery, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 33% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskUPBD’s case rests on steady performance, cash-backed profits, and stronger full-year EPS guidance. Revenue growth remains unclear because the earnings history is empty. The latest Q3 result beat estimates, and management raised its full-year non-GAAP EPS outlook. UPBD trades at 5× P/E versus a 15× peer median; expectations look modest versus our view. The key risk is that its elevated risk and Mania market cycle leave little room for disappointment. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 23%. Peer multiples imply a price about 48% above where it trades; our read remains intact, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. UPBD is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 6 analysts currently covering UPBD (as of Oct 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
Continue this research
Compare UPBD with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPBD Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Consumer Discretionary (broad) — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put UPBD next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Higher full-year EPS outlook is a meaningful positive guidance update despite the Q4 revenue forecast.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Stable outlook indicates strong revenue growth potential.