Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$17.08-1.67%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Upbound Group, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.23B
EPS	—	1.103
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$4.7B–$4.85B	4.73B
EPS	—	4.16
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.93B
EPS	—	4.621

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.39 per share	The company keeps paying a steady $0.39 dividend per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.39	Dividend per share: $0.39 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.39 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20260.39 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c4af5055-ad00-4912-8acd-808fe17ff96d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Dividend per share has been consistently maintained at $0.39 from 2025-Q1 through 2026-Q2, demonstrating stable capital allocation to shareholders. The trajectory is delivering consistent dividend payments as committed. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income improves to at least $77 million in 2026-Q1	Profit rises with operating income reaching $77 million in 2026-Q1.	Intact	Operating income falls below $57 million in any quarter	Operating income: $54.259M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $77 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 202654,259,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c4af5055-ad00-4912-8acd-808fe17ff96d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income rose from $50.7 million in 2025-Q2 to $77.4 million in 2026-Q1, before declining to $54.3 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows some volatility but overall improvement compared to early 2025, indicating partial delivery on improving operating income. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Consolidated revenue grows to about $4.825 billion in FY26	Upbound grows revenue steadily, hitting about $4.8 billion in 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $4.6 billion in FY26	Revenue: $1.163B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $4.825 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20261,163,426,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c4af5055-ad00-4912-8acd-808fe17ff96d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Consolidated revenue grew from $1.16 billion in 2025-Q2 to $1.21 billion in 2026-Q1 (+3.7%), with Brigit revenue increasing 37% year-over-year in 2026-Q2 and Rent-A-Center same store sales up 160 basis points year-over-year. The trajectory shows delivering growth consistent with management's stated focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$4.76 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.93B

$5.11B → $4.93B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.76	$5,113,801,655	5 / 5
2026-07-25	$4.76	$5,068,127,000	7 / 7
2026-07-26	$4.76	$5,068,127,000	7 / 7
2026-07-27	$4.76	$5,068,127,000	7 / 7
2026-07-28	$4.76	$5,068,127,000	7 / 7
2026-07-29	$4.76	$5,068,155,655	5 / 5
2026-07-30	$4.76	$5,068,127,000	7 / 7
2026-07-31	$4.65	$4,957,413,857	5 / 5
2026-08-01	$4.65	$4,957,413,857	5 / 5
2026-08-02	$4.58	$4,937,171,570	7 / 7
2026-08-03	$4.58	$4,937,143,000	5 / 5
2026-08-04	$4.58	$4,937,171,570	7 / 7
2026-08-05	$4.58	$4,937,171,570	7 / 7
2026-08-06	$4.58	$4,937,171,570	7 / 7
2026-08-08	$4.58	$4,937,143,000	5 / 5
2026-08-09	$4.58	$4,937,171,570	7 / 7
2026-08-10	$4.58	$4,937,143,000	5 / 5
2026-08-12	$4.58	$4,937,143,000	5 / 5
2026-08-13	$4.58	$4,937,143,000	5 / 5
2026-08-14	$4.58	$4,937,143,000	5 / 5
2026-08-15	$4.58	$4,937,143,000	5 / 5
2026-08-16	$4.58	$4,937,143,000	5 / 5
2026-08-17	$4.58	$4,937,143,000	5 / 5
2026-08-18	$4.58	$4,937,143,000	5 / 5
2026-08-19	$4.58	$4,937,143,000	5 / 5
2026-08-20	$4.58	$4,937,143,000	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$4.58	$4,937,143,000	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$4.58	$4,937,143,000	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$4.58	$4,937,143,000	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$4.58	$4,937,143,000	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$4.58	$4,937,143,000	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$4.58	$4,937,143,000	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$4.58	$4,937,143,000	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$4.58	$4,937,143,000	5 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$4,928,569,790	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$4,924,582,421	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$4,924,582,421	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$4,924,582,421	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$4,924,582,421	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$4,924,582,421	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$4,924,582,421	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$4,924,582,421	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$4,924,582,421	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$4,924,584,688	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$4,924,584,688	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$4,924,584,688	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$4,924,584,688	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$4,924,584,688	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$4,924,584,688	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$4,924,591,238	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$4,924,591,317	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$4,924,591,317	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$4,924,591,317	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$4,925,691,317	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$4,925,691,317	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$4,925,691,317	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$4,925,691,317	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$4,925,691,317	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$4,925,691,317	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$4,925,691,317	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$4,925,691,317	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$4,925,691,317	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$4,925,691,317	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$4,925,691,317	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$4,925,691,317	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$4,925,691,317	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$4,925,691,317	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	1
2026-06-01	6	1
2026-07-01	6	2
2026-08-01	6	2
2026-09-01	5	2
2026-10-01	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.39 per shareDividend per share: $0.39 per share
Operating income improves to at least $77 million in 2026-Q1Operating income: $54.259M
Consolidated revenue grows to about $4.825 billion in FY26Revenue: $1.163B

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-32.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Upbound Group, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a value-oriented business with signs of growth, rather than a clear steady compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, and recent company momentum has improved, but management execution and operating results remain uneven.

What's priced into Upbound Group, Inc.

UPBD is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting market expectations may be more cautious than the evidence supports. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the valuation case does not rest on unusually fragile assumptions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue priorities are on track: Brigit revenue grew year over year, Rent-A-Center same-store sales improved, and consolidated revenue rose across the reported periods. Operating income has improved from early 2025 levels but fell in 2026-Q2, while the dividend has remained steady; a guidance cut on the next call is a meaningful risk.

What Upbound Group, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on management sustaining revenue growth and making operating income less volatile, especially following the CEO transition. Sector signals also matter: continued strength from AUR and DUOL could support the sector backdrop, while weaker results or guidance from them could remove that support.