Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09
$18.11-1.84%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Upbound grows revenue steadily, hitting about $4.8 billion in 2026. Profit rises with operating income reaching $77 million in 2026-Q1. The company keeps paying a steady $0.39 dividend per share. Its valuation is cheap with a P/E of 4.87, well below peers.
Revenue growth could slow below 5%, hurting profits. Operating income might stall or fall. Dividend payments could be cut if cash flow weakens. The cheap valuation may reflect hidden risks or sector headwinds.
The market prices in about 5% revenue growth and a fair value near $41. Our view aligns with this but sees upside if growth and profits improve further.
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.39
Continue paying a consistent quarterly dividend of $0.39 per share to shareholders.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and dividend maintenance. The current thesis state is intact, as recent financial performance remains strong despite sector headwinds.
The market currently prices UPBD as cheap compared to its peers, indicating a divergence in expectations. There is a negative expectations gap, suggesting that the market may not fully reflect the company's potential for growth.
Fundamentals are likely to show continued strong performance in segment-level growth, particularly in Brigit and Rent-A-Center. However, there is an elevated risk due to the potential for missed earnings, especially given the recent mixed results from industry peers.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to increase revenue growth and improve operating income while maintaining the dividend. Additionally, external factors such as inflation trends and performance of sector bellwethers will play a crucial role in shaping future outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Dividend per share has been consistently maintained at $0.39 from 2025-Q1 through 2026-Q2. Management is delivering on this capital allocation priority with stable dividend payments.
“Dividend per share of $0.39 maintained.”
“Dividend per share of $0.39 maintained.”
“Dividend per share of $0.39 maintained.”
“Dividend per share of $0.39 maintained.”
“Dividend per share of $0.39 maintained.”
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $57 million in any quarter
Focus on increasing operating income through operational efficiencies and segment performance improvements.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income increased from $50.7 million in 2025-Q2 to $54.3 million in 2026-Q2. Acima segment improved EBITDA margin by 117 basis points to 16.2% in 2026-Q2. Management is delivering modest progress on operating income improvement.
“Operating income of $54 million; Acima EBITDA margin expanded 117 basis points to 16.2%.”
“Operating income of $77 million; Acima lease charge-off rate improved.”
“Operating income of $57 million; Acima achieved ninth consecutive quarter of revenue growth.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $4.6 billion in FY26
Continue to grow consolidated revenue across all segments including Brigit, Acima, and Rent-A-Center.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Consolidated revenue was $1.16 billion in 2025-Q2 and $1.16 billion in 2026-Q2, showing flat growth; Brigit revenue increased 37% year-over-year in 2026-Q2, and Rent-A-Center same store sales grew 160 basis points year-over-year. Management has consistently emphasized revenue growth, with mixed delivery on consolidated revenue but strong segment-level growth in Brigit and Rent-A-Center.
“Brigit revenue increased 37% year-over-year; Rent-A-Center same store sales increased 160 basis points.”
“Consolidated revenue increased 3.7% year-over-year; Brigit revenue increased more than 40% year-over-year.”
“Consolidated revenue growth of 11% year-over-year to $1.2 billion; Acima revenue increased 9% year-over-year.”
Overall, UPBD's position appears stable for the next 1-3 years, but it faces risks that could impact its trajectory. Not investment advice.