Reading UAA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UAA free→Reading UAA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UAA free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel ManufacturingSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, UAA trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 209% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.03. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6.03, UAA's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 67× p/e (4.3× the 15× p/e peer median, and 3.2× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~218% near-term growth vs our ~-3% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $1.90 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $5.00–$10. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 218% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.15x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.01 → $0.02 (+35.5% / 30d). 6 raised, 5 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 15% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$202.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$433.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,342.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows how much people are spending. This affects Under Armour.
Confirms one read:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth above 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth below 0% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for UAA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
No material events in the last 90 days.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$5.00 – $10.00 (median $5.75) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-14
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UAA Under Armour (Class A) | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 20 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
NKE Nike, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
TPR Tapestry, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
RL Ralph Lauren Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
LULU Lululemon Athletica | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: Unemployment claims can show how much money people have to spend. This impacts Under Armour's sales.
Confirms one read:Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims show a decrease from the previous week.
Confirms the other:Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims show an increase from the previous week.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would signal a shift in the declining trend for Under Armour.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Consumer spending affects Under Armour's sales. A rise in retail sales could help the company.
Confirms:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth above 3% year over year.
Disproves:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales decline or growth below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential shift in the consumer discretionary sector. This could hurt Under Armour's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the sector median for two consecutive quarters.
Disproves:Revenue growth has been above the sector median for two quarters in a row.