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Lululemon Athletica (LULU)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$116.21-2.16%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, LULU is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 50% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. If LULU reverses course and raises guidance next quarter, that is important to watch.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Apparel Retail
- Market cap
- $13.49B
- Employees
- 39,000
- IPO date
- 2007-05-01
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $116.21. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$235.95consensus
Range $224.59 – $254.43
vs price: -51% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$212.71consensus
Range $205.09 – $268.46
vs price: -46% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $116 LULU trades at 9× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $230 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $88–$250. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
9.4x
peer 18.5x · own history 25.4x
Premium
0.5x peer
0.4x its own history
Growth the price needs
-49%
our forecast 7%
Our fair value
$229.50
range $215.89 – $249.22
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 49% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
69th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.33x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
35th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -34.5% / 30d, n=16for period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.73 → $1.79 (-34.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 15 cut, 16 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 1 downgrade / 30d, 19 maintained. 6% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
9 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -1.8% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Guidance credibility
- neutral
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$168.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$420.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,388.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for Q2 revenue guidance to decline more than 3%
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show problems in North America. This would affect growth plans.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue guidance shows a decline worse than 3%.
Disproves:Q2 revenue guidance shows a decline of 3% or less.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LULU yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If LULU reverses course and raises guidance next quarter (came in LOWERED as of 2026-06-04), that's a sharp positive shift. The Street usually rewards a 'crisis averted' bounce-back.
- If sector bellwethers like TJX, ROST, and BURL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting LULU and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for LULU and other Consumer Discretionary names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like TJX, ROST, and BURL start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping LULU and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits LULU and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0413d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 4, 2026, lululemon athletica inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended May 3, 2026 and certain other information. A copy of the Company's press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. As previously announced, the Company has scheduled a conference call for 4:30 p.m. Eastern time on June 4, 2026 to discuss its financial results.
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.8 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.