Reading COLM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track COLM free→Reading COLM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track COLM free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel ManufacturingSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's recent track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 13% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of bellwethers in the Consumer Discretionary sector. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $65.39. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $67 the market pays 21× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 20× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $61 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 9% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.40x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.43 → $-0.40 (+7.2% / 30d). 3 raised, 3 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 38% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -13.6% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$100.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$331.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,341.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company is stable. It cares about its shareholders.
Confirms:The company pays the quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share as planned.
Disproves:The company stops or cuts the dividend payment.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for COLM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On April 30, 2026, Columbia Sportswear Company (the "Company") issued a press release reporting its first quarter 2026 financial results, updating its full year 2026 financial outlook, and announcing a quarterly dividend. A copy of the Company's press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this report shall not be treated as filed for purposes of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, a…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
COLM Columbia Sportswear | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
NKE Nike, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
TPR Tapestry, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | full | moderate |
RL Ralph Lauren Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
LULU Lululemon Athletica | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to update the financial outlook for the full year 2026 based on current performance and market conditions.
The company is committed to maintaining a quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share for its shareholders.
The company aims to improve its gross margin to a range of 50.3% to 50.5% for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: A better gross margin shows good cost management and pricing.
Confirms:Gross margin reaches between 50.3% and 50.5% in Q2 or Q3 2026.
Disproves:Gross margin is below 50.3%. This means cost pressures are getting worse.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows that the company is stable and confident in its cash flow.
Confirms:The company declares a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share.
Disproves:The company cuts or stops the quarterly cash dividend.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends can signal changes in the sector's health. A drop could indicate weakening demand.
Confirms:Columbia's revenue growth is now lower than its usual average.
Disproves:Revenue growth is still higher than its usual average.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how sales and profits are doing.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share is over $1.00, which shows strong performance.
Confirms the other:Earnings per share falls below $0.75, indicating weak performance.
Why it matters: A clear update will show how management views the business's growth. This can affect investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Management raises the full year 2026 revenue guidance by more than 5%.
Confirms the other:Management lowers the full year 2026 revenue guidance by more than 5%.
Why it matters: Exceeding 1% growth would support management's outlook and show recovery in the U.S. market.
Confirms:Q2 net sales grew more than 1% from last year. This shows recovery.
Disproves:Q2 net sales growth is below 1% year over year, suggesting ongoing challenges.
REGULATION FD DISCLOSURE In its April 30, 2026 press release, the Company announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share of common stock to be paid on June 4, 2026 to its shareholders of record on May 21, 2026.
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT On March 19, 2026, Columbia Sportswear Company (the “Company”) entered into a Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as the administrative agent for the lenders and as a lender (the “Administrative Agent”), and the other lenders party thereto. The Credit Agreement provides for up to $500 million of borrowings in U.S. Dollars pursuant to an unsecured revolving credit facility (the “Credit Facility”), which is availab…
TERMINATION OF A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT On March 19, 2026, in connection with the Company’s entry into the Credit Agreement described in
CREATION OF A DIRECT FINANCIAL OBLIGATION OR AN OBLIGATION UNDER AN OFF-BALANCE SHEET ARRANGEMENT OF A REGISTRANT The information disclosed under