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Movado Group, Inc. (MOV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$37.06-0.22%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, MOV trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 49% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include the performance of sector bellwethers and any changes in GDP growth. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Luxury Goods
- Market cap
- $825.52M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-06-13
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $37.06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$24.89consensus
Range $24.14 – $25.49
vs price: +49% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$45.45consensus
Range $34.05 – $56.84
vs price: -18% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratingmedium confidence
At $37 MOV trades at 24× p/e — 1.5× the 15× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $25 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
23.7x
peer 15.4x · own history —
Premium
1.5x peer
Growth the price needs
46%
our forecast 0%
Our fair value
$25.45
range $24.18 – $26.08
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 49% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
91st pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 2.25x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
68th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +7.0% / 30d, n=2for period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.33 → $0.35 (+7.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.1% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$150.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$307.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,369.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Short-term · Daily
- Either wayMedium confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for June retail sales data on June 17
Why it matters: Retail sales data will show consumer spending trends. This affects Movado's sales outlook.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase year over year by more than 2%.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline year over year by more than 2%.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MOV yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like TPR, SIG, and CPRI keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting MOV and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If MOV beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a very large beat off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2026-04-30 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for MOV and other Consumer Discretionary names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like TPR, SIG, and CPRI start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping MOV and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits MOV and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2721d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 27, 2026, Movado Group, Inc. issued a press release announcing first quarter results for the period ended April 30, 2026. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.