Reading MOV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MOV free→Reading MOV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, MOV trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 49% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include the performance of sector bellwethers and any changes in GDP growth. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $37.06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $37 MOV trades at 24× p/e — 1.5× the 15× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $25 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 49% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.25x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.33 → $0.35 (+7.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.1% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$150.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$307.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,369.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data will show consumer spending trends. This affects Movado's sales outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase year over year by more than 2%.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline year over year by more than 2%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MOV yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 27, 2026, Movado Group, Inc. issued a press release announcing first quarter results for the period ended April 30, 2026. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MOV Movado Group, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
NKE Nike, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
TPR Tapestry, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
RL Ralph Lauren Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
LULU Lululemon Athletica | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Extend the license agreement with Calvin Klein, Inc. for an additional three years until December 31, 2029.
Continue to pay a consistent dividend of $0.35 per share to shareholders.
Maintain stable operating income despite fluctuations in revenue.
Why it matters: GDP data shows economic health. Strong GDP growth can boost consumer confidence.
Confirms one read:GDP growth exceeds 3% in the third estimate.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is below 1% in the third estimate.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change how much people spend and interest rates. This impacts Movado's market.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises rates and signals a strong economy.
Confirms the other:FOMC cuts rates or signals economic weakness.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 30, 2026, Movado Group, Inc. and its wholly owned subsidiaries Swissam Products Limited and MGI Luxury Group Sárl (collectively, the “Company”) entered into a letter agreement (the “Extension Letter”) pursuant to which the License Agreement between the Company and Calvin Klein, Inc. (“CKI”) dated as of August 19, 2020 (the “Existing Agreement”) was extended for an additional three years ending December 31, 2029. The other material provision…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 19, 2026, Movado Group, Inc. issued a press release announcing fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026 results for the periods ended January 31, 2026. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 25, 2025, Movado Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing third quarter results for the period ended October 31, 2025. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 28, 2025, Movado Group, Inc. issued a press release announcing second quarter results for the period ended July 31, 2025. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.