Reading CPRI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CPRI free→Reading CPRI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CPRI free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. If CPRI cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $21.07. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $21 CPRI trades at 14× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $21 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $20–$22. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 1% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.56x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.32 → $0.40 (+25.9% / 30d). 10 raised, 0 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 56% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 10.7% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -124.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$172.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$455.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,930.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target would show growth after recent drops.
Confirms:Q1 FY 2027 total revenue reported at or above $750 million.
Disproves:Q1 FY 2027 total revenue reported below $750 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CPRI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Director — Stephen Reitman: Mr. Reitman is retiring and will not stand for re-election to the Board of Directors.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$20.00 – $22.00 (median $20.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-28
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CPRI Capri Holdings | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | fair | elevated |
NKE Nike, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
TPR Tapestry, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
RL Ralph Lauren Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
LULU Lululemon Athletica | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Capri Holdings aims for a 40% increase in earnings per share for fiscal year 2027.
Capri Holdings is focused on stabilizing its business and achieving growth in fiscal year 2027.
Capri Holdings targets low-single-digit revenue growth for fiscal year 2027.
Why it matters: Stabilizing revenue is key for Capri to return to growth in FY 2027.
Confirms:Q4 revenue growth is better or stays above 0% compared to last year.
Disproves:Q4 revenue growth goes down compared to last year. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Michael Kors makes a lot of money. If sales stabilize or grow, the brand is doing well.
Confirms:Michael Kors revenue growth reported at or above 0% year over year.
Disproves:Michael Kors revenue reported to decline year over year.
Why it matters: Meeting this EPS would show strong earnings recovery and help management's growth plans.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS reported at or above $0.40 for Q1 FY 2027.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS reported below $0.40 for Q1 FY 2027.
Why it matters: Consumer spending impacts Capri's sales. Strong retail sales lead to better results.
Confirms one read:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Retail sales growth is below 0%. This shows weak demand from consumers.
Why it matters: Getting back the $65 million in tariffs would help cash flow and financial health.
Confirms:Official confirmation of the $65 million IEEPA tariff refund from U.S. Customs.
Disproves:No progress or delays in the tariff refund process.
Why it matters: EPS growth is key for getting back investor trust. It shows good management.
Confirms:Reported EPS growth for FY 2027 at or above 40%.
Disproves:Reported EPS growth for FY 2027 below 40%.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On May 27, 2026, the Company issued a press release containing its unaudited financial results for its fourth fiscal quarter and fiscal year ended March 28, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS. On April 6, 2026, Krista McDonough, Chief Legal and Sustainability Officer of Capri Holdings Limited (the “Company”), notified the Company of her decision to voluntarily resign from her position in order to pursue another professional opportunity. Ms. McDonough’s resignation will be effective June 26, 2026. The Company has initiated a process to id…
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS. Appointment of Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer On February 24, 2026, Capri Holdings Limited (the “Company” or “Capri”) announced that the Board of Directors appointed Tyler Reddien, age 49, as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer, effective as of March 30, 2026 (the “Commencement Date”). Mr. Reddien…
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On February 3, 2026, Capri Holdings Limited ( the “Company”) issued a press release containing its unaudited financial results for its third fiscal quarter ended December 27, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.