Reading FIGS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FIGS free→Reading FIGS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FIGS free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel ManufacturingSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, FIGS trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 275% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $12.22. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $12, FIGS's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 57× p/e (3.7× the 15× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~258% near-term growth vs our ~17% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $3.48 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 258% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.20x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.07 → $0.07 (+1.8% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 56% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$232.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$445.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,411.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects consumer confidence and spending. This impacts Figs' performance.
Confirms one read:GDP growth is raised. This shows a stronger economy.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is lowered. This shows economic weakness.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FIGS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
shall be deemed to be furnished, and not filed. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. FIGS, INC. Date: May 7, 2026 By: /s/ Sarah Oughtred Name: Sarah Oughtred Title: Chief Financial Officer
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FIGS Figs, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
NKE Nike, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
TPR Tapestry, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | full | moderate |
RL Ralph Lauren Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
LULU Lululemon Athletica | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims for top-line growth of 14% to 16% for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $151.661M in 2025-Q3 to $159.902M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the 14% to 16% growth target for 2026. The trajectory shows delivering on the stated growth priority.
“We now expect top-line growth of 14% to 16%, including growth in the low 20% range in Q2.”
“Plans Low Double-Digit Net Revenues Growth and Margin Expansion in FY 2026”
Management targets an adjusted EBITDA margin expansion to 13.0% to 13.2% for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The adjusted EBITDA margin target has been raised from 12.7%-12.9% to 13.0%-13.2% for 2026. The financials do not provide specific margin data for 2026-Q1, indicating limited visibility into current progress.
“Adjusted EBITDA Margin (2)(4) 13.0% to 13.2%”
Management plans for low double-digit net revenue growth and margin expansion in fiscal year 2026.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Revenue increased from $151.661M in 2025-Q3 to $159.902M in 2026-Q1, showing initial progress towards the low double-digit growth target. However, further data is needed to assess full-year trajectory.
“Plans Low Double-Digit Net Revenues Growth and Margin Expansion in FY 2026”
Why it matters: This report gives insight into consumer spending trends. It can affect Figs' sales outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales go up each month. This shows stronger demand from consumers.
Confirms the other:Retail sales go down each month. This shows weaker spending by consumers.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can impact interest rates and consumer spending. This affects Figs' sales.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises rates, leading to a slowdown in consumer spending.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps rates steady or lowers them, supporting consumer spending.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, FIGS, Inc. (the “ Company ”) announced its financial results for the three months and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (this “ Report ”).
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On December 9, 2025, FIGS, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into a First Amendment to Office Lease (the “ First Amendment ”) with 2834 Colorado Avenue, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (the “ Landlord ”), amending that certain Office Lease, by and between the Company and Landlord, dated as of November 26, 2018, which was originally expected to expire by its terms on January 31, 2030 (the “ Original Lease ” and, as amended by the First Amendme…
by reference. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. FIGS, INC. Date: December 15, 2025 By: /s/ Sarah Oughtred Name: Sarah Oughtred Title: Chief Financial Officer
shall be deemed to be furnished, and not filed. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. FIGS, INC. Date: November 6, 2025 By: /s/ Sarah Oughtred Name: Sarah Oughtred Title: Chief Financial Officer
“Adjusted EBITDA Margin (2)(4) 12.7% to 12.9%”