Figs, Inc. (FIGS)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-10-23

$20.20-1.27%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Figs, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.38 → 0.38 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	221.76M
EPS	—	0.118
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	761.04M
EPS	—	0.366
Revenue growth	About 20%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	832.82M
EPS	—	0.376

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Expand adjusted EBITDA margin to 13.0% to 13.2% in 2026	Profit margin should expand to about 13%.	Improving	EBITDA margin falls below 11% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved from 7.3% in 2025-Q1 to 8.7% in 2026-Q1 and surged to 18.6% in 2026-Q2, exceeding prior guidance. Full year 2026 margin guidance increased to 14.8%-15.0%. The trajectory shows delivering margin expansion with strong expense leverage. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve 14% to 16% revenue growth in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Figs, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 14% to 16% YoY growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in FY26	Revenue growth: 28.81% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 14% to 16% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202628.812238 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ce182329-bbdc-4d0f-9ae0-9c8aeec21b71. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain valuation premium with justified growth	A supporting condition in Figs, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is PE below 40 or justified by growth.	Under Pressure	PE remains above 45 with slowing growth	P/E (TTM): 69.66x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 202669.6552 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: FIGS:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.38

$0.32 → $0.38 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.83B

$0.79B → $0.83B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.32	$786,590,227	7 / 7
2026-07-25	$0.32	$786,384,520	9 / 8
2026-07-26	$0.32	$786,384,520	9 / 8
2026-07-27	$0.32	$786,421,489	7 / 7
2026-07-28	$0.32	$786,421,489	7 / 7
2026-07-29	$0.32	$786,384,520	9 / 8
2026-07-30	$0.32	$786,421,489	7 / 7
2026-07-31	$0.32	$786,384,520	9 / 8
2026-08-01	$0.32	$786,421,489	7 / 7
2026-08-02	$0.32	$786,384,520	9 / 8
2026-08-03	$0.32	$786,384,520	9 / 8
2026-08-04	$0.32	$786,384,520	9 / 8
2026-08-05	$0.32	$786,384,520	9 / 8
2026-08-06	$0.32	$786,384,520	9 / 8
2026-08-07	$0.32	$786,421,489	7 / 7
2026-08-08	$0.34	$798,811,770	8 / 8
2026-08-09	$0.34	$798,811,770	8 / 8
2026-08-10	$0.34	$798,811,770	8 / 8
2026-08-11	$0.32	$786,421,489	7 / 7
2026-08-12	$0.38	$820,911,770	9 / 8
2026-08-13	$0.32	$786,421,489	7 / 7
2026-08-14	$0.32	$786,421,489	7 / 7
2026-08-15	$0.32	$786,421,489	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$0.32	$786,421,489	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$0.32	$786,421,489	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$0.32	$786,421,489	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$0.32	$786,421,489	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-08-21	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-08-22	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-08-23	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-08-24	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-08-25	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-08-26	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-08-27	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-08-28	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-08-29	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-08-30	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-08-31	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-09-01	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-09-02	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-09-03	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-09-04	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-09-05	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-09-06	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-09-07	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-09-08	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-09-09	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-09-10	$0.38	$829,742,167	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$0.38	$829,742,167	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$0.37	$831,065,941	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$0.37	$831,065,941	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$0.37	$831,065,941	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$0.37	$831,065,941	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$0.38	$832,815,941	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$0.38	$832,815,941	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$0.38	$832,815,941	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	4
2026-06-01	5	4
2026-07-01	5	4
2026-08-01	5	4
2026-09-01	5	4
2026-10-01	5	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Expand adjusted EBITDA margin to 13.0% to 13.2% in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve 14% to 16% revenue growth in fiscal 2026Revenue growth: 28.81%
Maintain valuation premium with justified growthPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-46.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Figs, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FIGS is a growth business whose multi-year view depends on sustaining revenue growth while improving profitability. The thesis is intact, with recent financial performance holding in the top half of its industry, but risk is elevated and confidence in the valuation model is low.

What's priced into Figs, Inc.

The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 4.42-point premium, though its valuation measure recently fell from 32.2 to 20.0. The evidence suggests expectations are demanding, but the priced-in fragility assessment is low because the concern is valuation alone, not a combination of expensive valuation, weak results, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong: revenue grew 28.0% year over year in the first quarter of 2026 and 28.8% in the second, while second-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin reached 18.6%. Management is on track with its 2026 growth and margin priorities, but a guidance cut would be a meaningful risk; recent earnings surprises have also been erratic despite a low estimated miss risk.

What Figs, Inc. hinges on

Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis hinges on sustaining growth near management’s 2026 goal and delivering the guided margin expansion. In the near term, a guidance cut could weaken the case, while continued earnings strength from consumer discretionary bellwethers such as RL, LEVI, and VFC could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support.