Columbia Sportswear (COLM)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-10-23

$61.35-1.16%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Columbia Sportswear’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.19 → 4.18 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
EPS	$1.15–$1.35non-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.12B
EPS	—	2.243
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$3.43B–$3.5B	3.46B
EPS	$4.45–$4.9	4.408
Gross margin	52.1%–52.3%	—
Operating cash flow	$290M–$310M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.58B
EPS	—	4.18

What the Thesis Depends On

5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share	It pays a steady dividend of $0.30 per share quarterly.	Intact	Dividend cut or suspension	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The company consistently declared and paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share from 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q2. This steady dividend reflects management's commitment to returning capital to shareholders with no changes in dividend amount during this period. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Free cash flow near $315 million	The company generates strong free cash flow around $315 million.	Under Pressure	Free cash flow falls below $300M in FY26	Free cash flow: $101.633M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$315M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026101,633,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin near 50.4%	Profit margins improve to about 7% operating margin and 50.4% gross margin.	Under Pressure	Gross margin falls below 49.8% in FY26	Gross margin: 58.34% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 50.4%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202658.34215 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fa26232a-6a06-4e4f-b5d3-15863ec3518f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross margin expanded significantly in 2026-Q2 to 58.3% from 49.1% in 2025-Q2, largely due to a 980 basis point benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds. Management raised full year 2026 gross margin guidance to 52.1%-52.3%, up from prior 50.3%-50.5%. The trajectory shows delivering margin improvement driven by tariff refunds, partially offset by channel profitability challenges. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating margin near 7.1%	Profit margins improve to about 7% operating margin and 50.4% gross margin.	Under Pressure	Operating margin falls below 5.2% in FY26	Operating margin: 5.03% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 7.1%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20265.027004 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fa26232a-6a06-4e4f-b5d3-15863ec3518f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross margin expanded significantly in 2026-Q2 to 58.3% from 49.1% in 2025-Q2, largely due to a 980 basis point benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds. Management raised full year 2026 gross margin guidance to 52.1%-52.3%, up from prior 50.3%-50.5%. The trajectory shows delivering margin improvement driven by tariff refunds, partially offset by channel profitability challenges. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue near $3.47 billion	Columbia Sportswear grows sales about 3% yearly with revenue near $3.47 billion in 2026.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $3.33B in FY26	Revenue: $614.362M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.47B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026614,362,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fa26232a-6a06-4e4f-b5d3-15863ec3518f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management updated full year 2026 financial outlook multiple times, raising EPS guidance from $3.55-$4.00 to $4.45-$4.90 and maintaining net sales growth guidance of 1.0%-3.0%. These updates reflect tariff refunds and macroeconomic factors. The trajectory shows management actively revising guidance to reflect current conditions. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.18

$4.23 → $4.18 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.58B

$3.59B → $3.58B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.23	$3,586,151,890	9 / 9
2026-07-25	$4.23	$3,586,151,890	9 / 9
2026-07-26	$4.23	$3,586,151,890	9 / 9
2026-07-27	$4.23	$3,585,674,543	6 / 7
2026-07-28	$4.23	$3,586,151,890	9 / 9
2026-07-29	$4.23	$3,585,674,543	6 / 7
2026-07-30	$4.23	$3,586,151,890	9 / 9
2026-07-31	$4.19	$3,573,236,775	6 / 6
2026-08-01	$4.19	$3,573,236,775	6 / 6
2026-08-02	$4.19	$3,566,977,140	9 / 9
2026-08-03	$4.19	$3,566,977,140	9 / 9
2026-08-04	$4.19	$3,572,527,472	6 / 7
2026-08-05	$4.19	$3,572,527,472	6 / 7
2026-08-06	$4.19	$3,572,527,472	6 / 7
2026-08-07	$4.19	$3,572,527,472	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$4.19	$3,566,977,140	9 / 9
2026-08-09	$4.19	$3,566,977,140	9 / 9
2026-08-10	$4.19	$3,566,977,140	9 / 9
2026-08-11	$4.19	$3,566,977,140	9 / 9
2026-08-12	$4.19	$3,572,527,472	6 / 7
2026-08-13	$4.19	$3,566,977,140	9 / 9
2026-08-14	$4.19	$3,572,527,472	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$4.19	$3,572,527,472	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$4.19	$3,572,527,472	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$4.19	$3,572,527,472	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$4.19	$3,572,527,472	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$4.19	$3,572,527,472	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$4.19	$3,572,580,906	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$4.19	$3,572,580,906	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$4.19	$3,572,580,906	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$4.19	$3,572,580,906	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$4.19	$3,572,580,906	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-08-27	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-08-28	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-08-29	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-08-30	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$4.19	$3,572,562,281	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$4.18	$3,571,062,281	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$4.18	$3,571,062,281	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$4.18	$3,571,062,281	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$4.18	$3,571,062,281	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$4.18	$3,571,062,281	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$4.18	$3,571,062,281	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$4.18	$3,571,062,281	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$4.18	$3,571,062,281	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$4.19	$3,570,456,945	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$4.18	$3,581,105,332	6 / 6
2026-10-23	$4.18	$3,581,105,332	6 / 6
2026-10-24	$4.18	$3,581,105,332	6 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	4	1
2026-06-01	3	4	1
2026-07-01	3	4	1
2026-08-01	3	4	1
2026-09-01	3	4	1
2026-10-01	3	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Quarterly dividend of $0.30 per shareDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow near $315 millionPublished status: Under Pressure
Gross margin near 50.4%Published status: Under Pressure
Operating margin near 7.1%Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue near $3.47 billionPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Columbia Sportswear outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a branded-apparel business with a multi-year view tied to profitable growth, not a clear turnaround. The thesis is in a watch state: execution has shown early progress, while recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Columbia Sportswear

The valuation is expensive versus peers, although its valuation measure recently fell from 52.5 to 38.2. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with no fragility gates triggered, but the expectations gap is negative, so the evidence does not point to a large cushion if execution weakens.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results look mixed: second-quarter net sales rose 2%, with international growth offsetting U.S. softness, and the latest earnings were in line after a prior-quarter beat. Gross margin rose to 58.3%, helped by tariff refunds, and management raised its full-year margin guidance; that support may not fully reflect underlying channel profitability. The near-term miss risk is described as low, but past earnings surprises have been erratic, and the recent guidance increase makes execution important.

What Columbia Sportswear hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on the ACCELERATE strategy producing profitable growth, especially in footwear and international markets, while U.S. softness and channel challenges remain contained. A reversal and guidance cut after the recent increase would damage management credibility. Sector signals also matter: continued strength at RL, LEVI, and VFC could support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.