Columbia Sportswear (COLM)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-09
$56.06-2.86%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Gross margin near 50.4%: GM 52.2% vs target 50.4%.
Columbia Sportswear grows sales about 3% yearly with revenue near $3.47 billion in 2026. Profit margins improve to about 7% operating margin and 50.4% gross margin. The company generates strong free cash flow around $315 million. It pays a steady dividend of $0.30 per share quarterly.
Growth could slow below 2% if market demand weakens. Profit margins may compress if costs rise or pricing power fades. Free cash flow could fall below $300 million if expenses increase.
The stock trades about 10% below our fair value near $71. Analysts expect about 4% revenue growth and EPS of $3.85 in 2026. Our view aligns with this moderate growth but sees risks to margin and cash flow.
Breaks if: Dividend cut or suspension
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $300M in FY26
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 49.8% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth strategies. However, the current thesis state is weakened due to recent financial performance dropping within its industry.
The market currently prices COLM at a premium compared to its peers, indicating that expectations are somewhat high. There is an expectations gap suggesting that the market anticipates continued growth, but recent performance has not fully supported this outlook.
Management is on track with its ACCELERATE Growth Strategy, showing early signs of growth momentum. However, there are challenges, including a mixed performance in maintaining dividends and improving gross margins, which could impact future results.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute its growth strategy effectively and external factors such as inflation trends and sector performance. If key competitors in the Consumer Discretionary sector perform well, it could positively influence COLM's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The company’s financial performance has declined significantly. It fell from the 80th to the 45th percentile of its sector. This change indicates a weaker competitive position. Costs are rising due to tariffs, which will compress margins. There is also increasing competition from online-native brands.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 5.2% in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $3.33B in FY26
Overall, COLM's long-term outlook is cautious, with a focus on management execution amidst sector challenges. Not investment advice.