Under Armour (Class A) (UAA)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-10-23

$4.67-4.30%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Under Armour (Class A)’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-3.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.20 → 0.19 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.27B
EPS	—	0.044
Annual ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	4.73B
EPS	—	0.108
Annual ending 2028-03-31
Revenue	—	4.81B
EPS	—	0.188

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS reaching about -$0.03	A supporting condition in Under Armour (Class A)'s published investment case. The stated target is >=-0.03.	Intact	falls below -$0.05	Diluted EPS: $0.00 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=-0.03. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20260 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a5288be5-59cd-44d4-8a64-b1fc95560a6f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin of about 2.45%	The company aims for a gross margin of about 2.45%.	Intact	falls below 2.2%	Gross margin: 54.09% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=2.45%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 202654.086656 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a5288be5-59cd-44d4-8a64-b1fc95560a6f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth reaching about $4.73 billion	Revenue could reach about $4.73 billion by March 2027.	Under Pressure	falls below $4.5 billion	Revenue: $1.098B FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=4.73 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20261,097,927,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a5288be5-59cd-44d4-8a64-b1fc95560a6f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$0.19

$0.23 → $0.19 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$4.81B

$5.08B → $4.81B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.23	$5,075,636,615	14 / 17
2026-07-25	$0.24	$5,080,360,810	24 / 23
2026-07-26	$0.24	$5,080,360,810	24 / 23
2026-07-27	$0.24	$5,080,360,810	24 / 23
2026-07-28	$0.24	$5,080,360,810	24 / 23
2026-07-29	$0.23	$5,075,636,615	14 / 17
2026-07-30	$0.23	$5,075,636,615	14 / 17
2026-07-31	$0.24	$5,080,272,470	24 / 23
2026-08-01	$0.23	$5,075,529,667	14 / 17
2026-08-02	$0.24	$5,080,272,470	24 / 23
2026-08-03	$0.23	$5,075,529,667	14 / 17
2026-08-04	$0.23	$5,075,529,667	14 / 17
2026-08-05	$0.23	$5,080,961,820	24 / 23
2026-08-06	$0.23	$5,075,529,667	14 / 17
2026-08-08	$0.23	$5,080,961,820	24 / 23
2026-08-09	$0.23	$5,080,961,820	24 / 23
2026-08-10	$0.23	$5,076,344,417	14 / 17
2026-08-12	$0.20	$4,866,571,850	24 / 23
2026-08-13	$0.20	$4,866,571,850	24 / 23
2026-08-14	$0.23	$5,076,344,417	14 / 17
2026-08-15	$0.23	$5,076,344,417	14 / 17
2026-08-16	$0.23	$5,076,344,417	14 / 17
2026-08-17	$0.23	$5,076,344,417	14 / 17
2026-08-18	$0.23	$5,076,344,417	14 / 17
2026-08-19	$0.23	$5,076,344,417	14 / 17
2026-08-20	$0.20	$4,845,894,626	13 / 17
2026-08-21	$0.20	$4,845,894,626	13 / 17
2026-08-22	$0.20	$4,845,894,626	13 / 17
2026-08-23	$0.20	$4,845,894,626	13 / 17
2026-08-24	$0.20	$4,845,894,626	13 / 17
2026-08-25	$0.20	$4,845,896,853	13 / 17
2026-08-26	$0.20	$4,845,896,853	13 / 17
2026-08-27	$0.20	$4,845,896,853	13 / 17
2026-08-28	$0.20	$4,845,896,853	13 / 17
2026-08-29	$0.20	$4,845,896,853	13 / 17
2026-08-30	$0.20	$4,845,896,853	13 / 17
2026-08-31	$0.20	$4,845,896,853	13 / 17
2026-09-01	$0.20	$4,845,896,853	13 / 17
2026-09-02	$0.20	$4,845,896,853	13 / 17
2026-09-03	$0.20	$4,845,896,853	13 / 17
2026-09-04	$0.20	$4,845,896,853	13 / 17
2026-09-05	$0.20	$4,845,896,853	13 / 17
2026-09-06	$0.20	$4,845,896,853	13 / 17
2026-09-07	$0.20	$4,845,896,853	13 / 17
2026-09-08	$0.20	$4,845,896,853	13 / 17
2026-09-09	$0.20	$4,845,896,853	13 / 17
2026-09-10	$0.20	$4,845,896,853	13 / 17
2026-09-11	$0.20	$4,845,896,853	13 / 18
2026-09-12	$0.20	$4,838,779,783	14 / 18
2026-09-13	$0.20	$4,838,779,783	14 / 18
2026-09-14	$0.20	$4,838,779,783	14 / 18
2026-09-15	$0.20	$4,838,779,783	14 / 18
2026-09-16	$0.20	$4,838,779,783	14 / 18
2026-09-17	$0.20	$4,838,779,783	14 / 18
2026-09-18	$0.20	$4,838,779,783	14 / 18
2026-09-19	$0.20	$4,838,779,783	14 / 18
2026-09-20	$0.20	$4,838,779,783	14 / 18
2026-09-21	$0.20	$4,838,779,783	14 / 18
2026-09-22	$0.20	$4,838,779,783	14 / 18
2026-09-23	$0.20	$4,838,779,783	14 / 18
2026-09-24	$0.20	$4,838,779,783	14 / 18
2026-09-25	$0.20	$4,838,779,783	14 / 18
2026-09-26	$0.19	$4,819,120,340	14 / 18
2026-09-27	$0.19	$4,819,120,340	14 / 18
2026-09-28	$0.19	$4,819,120,340	14 / 18
2026-09-29	$0.19	$4,819,120,340	14 / 18
2026-09-30	$0.19	$4,819,120,340	14 / 18
2026-10-01	$0.19	$4,819,120,340	14 / 18
2026-10-02	$0.19	$4,819,120,340	14 / 18
2026-10-03	$0.19	$4,819,120,340	14 / 18
2026-10-04	$0.19	$4,819,120,340	14 / 18
2026-10-05	$0.19	$4,819,120,340	14 / 18
2026-10-06	$0.19	$4,819,120,340	14 / 18
2026-10-07	$0.19	$4,819,120,340	14 / 18
2026-10-08	$0.19	$4,816,090,673	15 / 19
2026-10-09	$0.19	$4,816,090,673	15 / 19
2026-10-10	$0.19	$4,816,090,673	15 / 19
2026-10-11	$0.19	$4,816,090,673	15 / 19
2026-10-12	$0.19	$4,816,090,673	15 / 19
2026-10-13	$0.19	$4,816,090,673	15 / 19
2026-10-14	$0.19	$4,816,090,673	15 / 19
2026-10-15	$0.19	$4,816,090,673	15 / 19
2026-10-16	$0.19	$4,816,090,673	15 / 19
2026-10-17	$0.19	$4,816,090,673	15 / 19
2026-10-18	$0.19	$4,815,084,590	15 / 19
2026-10-19	$0.19	$4,815,084,590	15 / 19
2026-10-20	$0.19	$4,815,084,590	15 / 19
2026-10-21	$0.19	$4,813,996,075	14 / 19
2026-10-22	$0.19	$4,813,996,075	14 / 19
2026-10-23	$0.19	$4,813,996,075	14 / 19
2026-10-24	$0.19	$4,813,996,075	14 / 19

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	19	3
2026-06-01	4	19	3
2026-07-01	5	19	3
2026-08-01	5	19	4
2026-09-01	4	18	5
2026-10-01	4	18	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 18 Hold · 5 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS reaching about -$0.03Diluted EPS: $0.00 per share
Gross margin of about 2.45%Gross margin: 54.09%
Revenue growth reaching about $4.73 billionPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 6, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-47.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Under Armour (Class A) outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a turnaround-style thesis, not a proven durable compounder. The thesis is in a watch state, with recent company momentum improving but financial performance still weak relative to its industry cohort.

What's priced into Under Armour (Class A)

The valuation model points to an expensive premium versus peers, while confidence in that estimate is low. The expectations gap is meaningful, and the evidence labels the current pricing as unjustified, though it does not indicate a high level of fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, losses and weak recent performance keep execution risk elevated. Company momentum has improved, but the latest quarter was missed and the evidence notes a deep miss in the recent history; a guidance cut on the next call would be a negative development.

What Under Armour (Class A) hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on whether management avoids another guidance cut and improves the operating picture. Sector signals also matter: continued strong results from RL, LEVI, and VFC could support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.