Reading TWI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TWI free→Reading TWI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TWI free→NYSEIndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, TWI trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 77% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern suggests a risk of being a value trap due to weak financials. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.59. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $7.59 TWI trades at 0× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $32 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 77% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.26x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.04 → $-0.04 (-14.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$211.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$480.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,184.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report will show if Titan can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows a big drop in losses. It may also show profits.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows ongoing losses. The financial outlook is getting worse.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TWI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On April 30, 2026, Titan International, Inc. issued a press release reporting its first quarter 2026 financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TWI Titan International, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CMI Cummins | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | full | moderate |
PCAR Paccar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | fair | low |
WAB Wabtec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | full | low |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Titan International aims to achieve full year revenue between $1.85 billion and $1.95 billion.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $505.073 million in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the full year target of $1.85-$1.95 billion. The trajectory shows limited progress as the company missed earnings expectations in 2026-Q1.
“We are maintaining our previously communicated full year guidance of sales between $1.85 and $1.95 billion.”
“For the full year we are expecting revenue in the $1.85 to $1.95 billion range.”
Titan International is committed to achieving Adjusted EBITDA between $105 million and $115 million for the full year.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has reiterated its Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $105-$115 million. However, the financials show a net income loss of $24.214 million in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards profitability.
“We are also maintaining our previously communicated full year guidance of Adjusted EBITDA between $105 million and $115 million.”
Titan International expects second quarter sales to be between $470 million and $490 million.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company has set a target for Q2 revenue between $470 million and $490 million. Given the Q1 revenue of $505.073 million, achieving this target will require maintaining or slightly reducing sales momentum.
“We currently expect second quarter sales to be between $470 million and $490 million.”
Why it matters: If the industrial sector shows renewed growth, it could benefit Titan. This is key to its recovery.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up to over 5% each year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On February 26, 2026, Titan International, Inc. issued a press release reporting its fourth quarter and year-end 2025 financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On February 9, 2026, Mr. Kim A. Marvin tendered his resignation from the Board of Directors of Titan International, Inc. (the "Company") and all committees thereof, of the Company, effective immediately. Mr. Marvin's decision to resign from the Board was not the result of any disagreement between Mr. Marvin and the Company, its management, the Board…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On December 3, 2025, the Board of Directors (Board) of Titan International, Inc. (the Company) approved the following executive leadership appointments, effective as of December 4, 2025: • David A. Martin, age 58, previously the Company’s Chief Financial Officer since June 2018, is appointed to the position of Senior Vice President and Chief Transfo…
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On November 6, 2025, Titan International, Inc. issued a press release reporting its third quarter 2025 financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.
“Adjusted EBITDA between $105 million and $115 million.”