Reading OSK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OSK free→Reading OSK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OSK free→NYSEIndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating that profits are not consistently backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 47% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include guidance changes from OSK and the performance of sector bellwethers like CAT, DE, and PCAR, as these could significantly influence OSK's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $136.65. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $137 OSK trades at 14× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $257 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $138–$197. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 47% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.76x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.24 → $2.66 (-17.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 15 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 61% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$168.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$318.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,336.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if cash from operations improves. This is key for dividends.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows cash from operating activities is better than last year.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows cash from operating activities is worse than last year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OSK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 8, 2026, Oshkosh Corporation (the “Company”) issued a news release (the “News Release”) announcing its earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of such news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$138.00 – $197.00 (median $175.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-05-12
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2013-Q3, 2014-Q1, 2014-Q2, 2014-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OSK Oshkosh | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CMI Cummins | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | full | moderate |
PCAR Paccar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | fair | low |
WAB Wabtec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | full | low |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to prioritize maintaining dividend payments to shareholders.
Focus on enhancing cash flow from operating activities to strengthen financial position.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends shows a promise to give value to shareholders. It builds investor trust.
Confirms:Oshkosh declares a dividend payment for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Oshkosh suspends or cuts the dividend payment for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, there will be ongoing issues in Access and Vocational.
Confirms:Q2 adjusted earnings per share reported below $2.80.
Disproves:Q2 adjusted earnings per share reported above $2.80.
Why it matters: More cash flow means better efficiency and stronger finances.
Confirms:Cash from operations goes up from $783 million in Q1.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities drops or stays the same in Q2.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is crucial for financial health. It affects operations and dividends.
Confirms:Management says cash from operations is rising a lot.
Disproves:Management says cash from operating activities is still weak or going down.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends is important. Changes may affect how investors feel.
Confirms:The company says dividend payments will keep going as planned.
Disproves:The company says it will cut or stop the dividend.
Why it matters: Earnings show financial health and how well the company runs. It affects future plans.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth speeding up above 8% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth declining or below 8% year over year.
Why it matters: A bigger drop shows worse conditions in Access. This will hurt overall performance.
Confirms:Access segment sales decline more than 2% year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Access segment sales grow or decline less than 2% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: An increase shows confidence in cash flow and financial stability.
Confirms:Announcement of a dividend increase from the current $0.57 per share.
Disproves:No increase in the dividend payment announced.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 16, 2026, Oshkosh Corporation (the “ Company ”) entered into a Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “ Credit Agreement ”) among the Company, the various lenders and letter of credit issuers party thereto, and Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent (the “ Agent ”). The Credit Agreement replaced the Company’s existing Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of March 23, 2022 (as amended, supplemented or othe…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant . The information provided in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 29, 2026, Oshkosh Corporation (the “Company”) issued a news release (the “News Release”) announcing its earnings for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of such news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. On January 29, 2026, the Company is holding a conference call in connection with the Company’s announcement of its earnings for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025 and i…